What if... July 20, 1944

[Korne]

What if the assassination attempt on Hitler's life had succeeded on 20th of July, 1944 and the coup d'état had been successful?
What influence would have had on Romania and its fate? What do you think that would have been Marshal Antonescu's reaction?
Would Germany (and its allies, including Romania) have been able to make separate peace with the Western powers and keep on fighting on the Eastern front? Or would Roosevelt have kept his promise that US would fight till the "unconditional surrender" of the Axis powers?

PS I know the suggested topic is counterfactual but IMO it is an interesting exercise of speculative analysis.

[mabadesc]

Hi Korne (I like your nick, btw. :wink: )

Interesting "what if" scenario. Without thinking much about it, my first instinct would be that the new government would have negotiated an armistice or sued for peace, primarily to avoid the inevitable Soviet invasion into Germany. The result may have been an admission of defeat on Germany's part, but I don't think the spheres of influence would have been created and the USSR wouldn't have obtained control over the Eastern Bloc. That's my instant reaction to your question, but my logic may be flawed.

[Korne]

Hi mabadesc (thx, you have a nice nick too :wink: )

I guess it is unlikely that the Stalin would have given up his expansion plans that easily. The Russians could have tried to take advantage of the confusion in the German command that would have followed the coup in order to negotiate the terms of the peace according to what it had been already decided in Teheran. As we know, the Wehrmacht commanders didn't join the putsch and waited till the situation became clear (that is the coup had failed and Hitler hadn't been killed). On the other hand, the coup was not very well organized (although the conspirators held important positions in the Wehrmacht) and therefore quickly suppressed.
In my opinion the spheres of influence were already created, though not yet confirmed. Of course a change in the Anglo-American policy cannot be excluded and Churchill's plans to land in Balkans might have come true, containing and maybe stopping the Soviet expansionism towards West.
What would have happened to Romania? Do you think that a Romanian-Hungarian war over Transylvania would have been unavoidable if no agreement had been reached?

[mabadesc]

I agree that the spheres of influence had already been determined, but I the sphere of influence granted to the Soviets was a "reward" for the defeat of the fight-til-the-end Germany. However, I think that for the allies, USSR was seen as the "lesser of two evils" which resulted in an alliance with them. With Hitler eliminated and a non-agressive Germany present, I would hope that the UK/US would have reverted to their pre-war positions in seeing USSR as a dangerous expansionist nation.

In any case, the german people were far more scared of the Soviets than of the West. In July '44 Germany still had some fight left in her. They probably would have tried to negotiate an armistice/surrender with the Western allies on the condition that Germany's initial borders would be guaranteed from the Soviets by the Western powers.

I also don't think that the Western powers were completely ignorant of the Soviet's post-war danger. Remember the "race" for Berlin in 1945. The allies were rushing to get as far east as possible to prevent Soviet troops from expanding further west.

About Romania/Hungary, you said:

QUOTE

What would have happened to Romania? Do you think that a Romanian-Hungarian war over Transylvania would have been unavoidable if no agreement had been reached?

With historical tensions running so high between these countries since 1918, I personally don't think a war could have been avoided. Even with Hitler there to keep them in check, border skirmishes still took place, and Antonescu kept the 1st Army at all times within Romania for the event of a war with Hungary. I think the war was more a question of "when", not of "if".

What are your opinions on this issue, Korne?

[Korne]

QUOTE

With historical tensions running so high between these countries since 1918, I personally don't think a war could have been avoided.  Even with Hitler there to keep them in check, border skirmishes still took place, and Antonescu kept the 1st Army at all times within Romania for the event of a war with Hungary.  I think the war was more a question of \"when\", not of \"if\". What are your opinions on this issue, Korne?

I agree. Only a third-party involvement (e.g. Soviet Union) in this issue could have stopped a war between Romania and Hungary. Without any external intervention, the outcome of this war is not hard to predict...
Hungary's only hope was to persuade a Great Power to dictate in their favor (as in 1940).