Danube Delta and the Ucrainean actions in Oct 2004

Robert, this movement of the border floating signs in the favor of Ukraine is an agression act, part of a plan. In the past... Have enyone some data from past incident with that ship sinked, who blocked the channel?

Iama

PS- maybe, is the beginning of a new Balcanian "situation". Romania explozion in small parts... you know, what i try to say...

"Rostock" sank in Sulina channel in 1991. As I know, this year or next year Romanian authorities will try to take out that wreck.

Is not so easy. I talk with some mans - from river navy, and for sri. Was do exactly to be hard to "take out".


Iama

This is the reason why they doesn't "take out" for so many years.

I heard from a friend that the Romanian government started a lawsuit against Ukraine at the International Court from Hague.
Well, this is a good idea, because if Ukraine will have some fines imposed, no closer relations with the European Union will be possible unless Ukraine pays its fines to Romania.
There is a great risk for Romania to lose the lawsuit, but anyway it is a better approach than what I wrote few days ago.

However, the International Court from Hague has limited powers. Israel also lost lawsuits at the International Court from Hague, and they don't bother too much about it. If I am not wrong, the United States also lost lawsuits at the International Court from Hague, and we are very well, thank you.

This post has been edited by Florin on October 23, 2004 05:56 am

Except that you tend to gather scorn and your diplomatic standing has a tendancy to shift to whale dung. While it may not have short term consequences that's how you build up a capital of hostility from other nations that comes back to haunt you when you need them.

This post has been edited by Chandernagore on October 23, 2004 09:00 am

The Ukrainians are presently building a channel between the Chilia channel and the Black Sea on their own territory, in order to create tax-free route for their ships, which presently have to pass through Romania in order to reach the sea. However, this is being done without much care for the Danube Delta, which is protected by UNESCO and thus breaking several international treaties Ukraine has signed. Romania and the international community are simply being ignored. The incident Florin talks about, the moving of buoys deep into Romanian waters, is clearly a case of violating Romanian frontiers. Initially the Romanian Foreign Office had a lame reaction to this and only after the press and the ecological organizations lobbied it actually did something about the Barstoe Channel. With the buoys, it asked the Ukrainians to take them back from our waters thus inviting them to violate the frontier once again! Eventually some actions were taken and the border police forces in the area were significantly bolstered. The Ukrainian dredges were stopped from crossing the frontier and some of buoys were removed. Nobody is saying to send in the Marines, but some political support from NATO won't hurt, especially given the fact that Romania has been USA's loyal puppy in Afghanistan and Irak.

The other problem with the Ukraine is related to the Serpeant Island in the Black Sea and the territorial waters around it and the oil beneath them. Romania and the Ukraine, after 20+ rounds of negotiations failed to reach any agreement. The problem is old. The island (a small rock, good only for a radar station) has been annexed by the Soviet Union in early 1948 (as well as several islands in the Danube Delta). However an agreement over the territorial waters was never achieved. Interestingly, the Ukrainian (absurd) claims today are even larger than the SU made during the Cold War, when it had a lot of influence in Romania. Anyway, the International Court will settle this hopefully. I don't think that Ukraine will ignore a ruling of the International Court, but anything is possible.

Except that in the case of Romania and the Ukraine, the treaty between them signed in 1997 (the so-much hated and criticised treaty by some) mentioned that in case no agreement can be reached over the Serpeant Island's territorial waters, both parties accept the judgement of the International Court. So in case Ukraine doesn't want to brake the treaty it will have to respect the decision.

Actually I agree on this matter. Some kind of message should be sent to Ukraine. However, if the only factor is Rumania being a "loyal puppy" to the US in the Middle East then Rumania should adress the request directly to Bush, and not to NATO. Last time I checked NATO was a US-European alliance, not an instrument of Republican policy.

This post has been edited by Chandernagore on October 23, 2004 12:16 pm

This process was filed in order to settle the dispute regarding the territorial waters around the Serpents Island at the mouth of the Danube. It is not directly related to the construction of the Bastroe channel by Ukraine.

Related to the former dispute, according to an article in the Romanian newspaper Jurnalul Naţional, Ukraine has already invited international companies to make offers for the concession of the exploitation of oil in the waters around the Serpents Island. If this is true, then Ukraine tries to set the International Court in face of a fait accompli.

Thank you all for your interesting additions.

It seems the Romanian politicians do not know some simple things known by any person born in Ukraine (I discussed with one several days ago.)

And these are:
Their economy is very weak in this moment. However, in the same time they do not want to return into the fraternal "hug" of Russia. I know the Romanian economy is now far from its better days, but it seems that of Ukraine is even worse.

This means Ukraine does not afford to ignore the international community, simply because they do not intend to have again a close partnership with Russia. The fact that they behave as the international community does not matter simply shows that they are better political players and know to bargain better.
And maybe the anemic behaviour of the Romanian politicians seems for Ukraine as an invitation to behave this way.

This post has been edited by Florin on October 24, 2004 04:17 am

And this is how they deal with their big economic problems...

http://www.janes.com/defence/news/jid/jid040916_1_n.shtml

Article in 'Adevarul' daily [in Rumanian only] on the joint Rumanian_Italian war exercises in Galati county, at approx. 30 km frm the Ukrainian border, with a clear message:Adevarul

Gen. Dénes

Ariete is the best product in tank domain - of Italy for all his istory. It is a compatible and capable MBT.
But - on topic - in case of conflict in Delta region i dont think is a good ideea to use MBT - in Delta relief. A conflict is a bad ideea. Ukraine is a more powerfull country then Romania. Whitout an expeditionary NATO force, we dont have chances to win, or resist on actualy borders.

In a possible conflict scenario, we need some expeditionary NATO aircraft force with F-15, F-16 and Tornado, with LGB & co., and at ground 1 - 2 division of tanks, some SAMs and mobile heavy artilery. For a short term conflict.

Hey, mr. Clancy, you have here a new scenario!


Iama

Good post Iamandi,

It is very unfortunate that Romania is now in many ways weaker militarily, then it has been in the past. Romania sould realize necessity to accelerate its rearming programs. The Ukriane has acted blantly agressive towards Romania on several occasions now. The so-called "NATO allies" have nothing to assit Romania, so Romania must be able to defend itself. Time and again history has taught Romania this very same lession, the two World Wars being best examples.
Britian, America, Germany and even France need to assit Romania in rearming, they plenty of spare Aircraft, Tanks, APCs, Aritillery and ships, just sitting around. Why would they not assit their Ally, furthermore how Romania can afford to trust allies who remain passive while her broaders are being violated!


Thank You

This post has been edited by Stephen on October 26, 2004 06:21 am