History repeating?, China=Stalin's Soviet Union?

Russia has been selling her great military power status to China.

Quotes from "Will China Repeat Stalin's success?" by Vasily Kashin
at http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/2-2004/di/wcrs/?form=print

In the end of the article, Kashin don't give much chances for a possible conflict between China and Russia. But it is just his opinion... Russia posses a lot of natural resourches, and China needs them for her growth. We will see a new Barbarossa, a Chinese one? In future, a weaker Russia will be an easy target for an advanced China hungry for resources.

What is your opinion? It is possible to see a change - China to use Taiwan as a motivation, but the real target to be Russia?

Iama

Hi Iamandi,

If anything, China is a bigger long-term threat than the USSR.

In effect, the USSR ran a war economy for its entire existence, imposing an enormous strain on the wider economy. As a reasult, the only area where the USSR was competitive with the USA was military. In virtually every other significant sphere the USA was enormously more developed than the USSR.

However, China is not so totally focused on military matters and is developing a much more ballanced economy than the USSR. In the long run this will make it far stronger.

For example, I recall no Soviet consumer goods being widely available in the West. The USSR couldn't satisfy its own home market and their quality was very poor. Compare this with the current panic in much of the EU and USA about Chinese consumer goods pouring in, potentially undercutting their own industries.

Another thing. Siberia is an area of great natural resources and little population. I predict that within the coming century Russia may well be pushed back across the Urals. It would then require the migration of only about 2% of China's population to change the ethnic composition of Siberia. China has been doing exactly that in Tibet for decades, so that Tibetans may now be a minority in their own land.

Cheers,

Sid.

Yes. China developed a good civilian industry and have an threatening export. This things represent the base for her military budget and military industry. I see in China an adapted way of thinking, and a combined doctrine ... an advanced/adapted comunism & nationalism. With a good economy, good research (spionage, reverse - engeneering, training of specialists over the border, and a lot of money), and time... China can be the first nation in history who can obtain succes. If they will not make mistakes.

I don't believe it. Russians will not stay and watch how chines will peacefully invade they land - Siberia. Without Siberia's natural resources Russia will become a shadow of what he was, something to remember we will read future history books. Future means economy, and without Siberia Russia will go down forever.

With her money China can develope more faster an army of proffesionals then Russia. So, Russia it is in danger. Russia's leaders knows, but they had no choice. Maybe they have make yet a bet: UE and USA will jump to save them, in case of war with China.

Even now, China can do this. Bad thing is that Siberia is huge and Chinese don't have a proper system of logistics to reinforce her offensive armys deep in this russian region.

But, if they (chinese) do this now, can loose this partner of deals for growing military force for the future.

Maybe - maybe now is the proper momment. Who knows how will look the future? Now USA is caught in Irak and Afganistan, and can be hard for them to help russians. UE is far away from Siberia...

Iama

I belive Russia has the nuclear force to destroy China several times. It's enough to keep it at bay.

Yes, and themselves during the process...

Yes, and themselves during the process...

Yes, also China heave wmds.

Iama

Hi Iamandi,

Naturally Russia would resist. However, its own hold on Siberia is still pretty tenuous. North of the Trans-Siberian railway the industrial cities are not self supporting. Furthermore, because the state is no longer subsidising them, many of these settlements are already depopulating. On the Chinese border almost all trade in consumer goods is one-way - from China to Russia. Chinese economic influence is already growing in Siberia, regardless of military or nuclear factors. I predict that this is just the start of a long process.

Cheers,

Sid.

And will be no ww2 style blitzkrieg, with hordes of chinese mounted on theyr armoured vechicles?

Iama

Yes, and themselves during the process...

Yes, also China heave wmds.

Iama

China has an estimated 250 strategic nuclear weapons, while Russia has some 5,000. That is 20 times more. Hardly comparable and enough to deter a Chinese military invasion.

Some sources says more then 250, some of them even 400. But is not so important how much really are, because tens of them are enough to make ugly things.

Is hard to beleieve in a nuclear war. Who will win will have a lot of looses.

Iama

It's demography and economics that will cause Russia to lose Siberia (at least eastern Siberia). From what I have heard, Chinese are already a common site in the areas along the border, and the population trends are entirely against Russia.

I feel very comfortable predicting there will be no blitzkrieg, and no nuclear threats either. Only a crazy Russian leader would sacrifice European Russia to defend historic claims to a land that his people had largely abandoned. On the other hand, if China has access to Siberian resources, they have little to gain from asserting a political claim just to change the flag on the city hall. Maybe the prediction that trading partners do not fight each other will come true in this case after all.

This post has been edited by Jeff_S on August 05, 2005 02:17 pm

China and Russia have a strategic alliance with the goal of counterbalancing the US. War between themselves is out of the question.

Thats a pretty decisive and reductionist statement. Do you have some numbers/examples to back it?

There was a Western embargo on soviet goods. It was war, so the competition between US-Soviet products was politicised. It was not a free market relationship between the 2 blocs. If it would have been, I'm sure there would have been at least a soviet battery or shoe lace that would have made it big in the US...
Also, theres another pretty reductionist statement about the USSR not being capable of satisfying its own home market. In what type of goods?

The appearance of more balance is given precisely by the lack of an embargo that would eliminate all investments and trade.
If one were to start, China would find itself with a far more precarious economy than USSR's.

I think the worry is that China will grow to be the hothouse of world capitalism and globalisation, not the USSR of old. China will attract so many capitalists willing to invest and outsource there, that any attempt to close markets from "chinese" goods will be met with stiff rebuke from the top world companies. With time China could very well become their new spoiled child.
Hence the US worry about losing that status. With energy prices rising, fundamental changes will take place.

This post has been edited by Imperialist on August 06, 2005 11:03 pm

Thats a pretty decisive and reductionist statement. Do you have some numbers/examples to back it?

I think USSR had advanced technology in various fields, but not applied for a higher standard of living, because of the political regime. I have seen a documentary with a renowned hospital somewhere in northern Russia, where surgeries on heart are done without by-pass, but by freezing the human body with ice in order to avoid irreversible brain damage during operation. This is a less risky method than the by-pass used everywhere else, including United States.

First,i agree with Dragos,USSR was in some domains less equal,if not much developed, than USA(see now the situation with space shuttles,Columbia and now Discovery,the americans take it in consideration to bring back the astronauts with russian ships,and same space ships was used for space station until now,and probably in the future too).And USSR was defeated economicaly,not military,were russian weapons are better in many domains. About the chinese threat over Russia,i think will not became a war for teritories.China dont have enough military unconventional power to threat or defeate Russia(even conventional is posible to have big problems,even the russian army is verry on low level now,but dont forgget about chinese military technics imports from Russia-SU 27,etc.).The nuclear(and other WMD) power of Russia is still verry big.USA still want a <space defence shield>,and lets be serious,is not against Iran or North Coreea,who can be crushed in couple minutes.And even China will become much economicaly strong than Russia,Russia will allways have the WMD button to keep down any significant threat of his border,especially for the rich teritories of Siberia.Remeber that Japan claim the Kurile Islands after end of USSR,but without any succes.