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> Alliances, current configuration
Imperialist
Posted: June 16, 2009 07:21 pm
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The first summit meeting of the so-called BRIC group — Brazil, Russia, India and China — was intended to underscore the rising economic clout of these four major developing countries and their demand for a greater voice in the world. And Russia, the group’s host and ideological provocateur, was especially interested in using the summit to fire a shot across Washington’s bow.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/world/eu....html?ref=world


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Hadrian
Posted: June 29, 2009 09:11 pm
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In case of a real conflict, russians will be alone.
The economic interests are too big for the others...
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Imperialist
Posted: June 30, 2009 05:41 pm
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QUOTE (Hadrian @ June 29, 2009 09:11 pm)
In case of a real conflict, russians will be alone.
The economic interests are too big for the others...

The Chinese would be with them.


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guina
Posted: June 30, 2009 06:30 pm
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The Chinese have their own interests and will be with RF only if its suits them.Look what hapened with Manas air base,not chinese ,of course,but indicative of the mood in the region.
The hot word in Moscow,right now,is a second campain against Georgia this summer,not probable,in my opinion,but serving somebody's interests
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Imperialist
Posted: June 30, 2009 08:53 pm
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QUOTE (guina @ June 30, 2009 06:30 pm)
The Chinese have their own interests and will be with RF only if its suits them.Look what hapened with Manas air base,not chinese ,of course,but indicative of the mood in the region.
The hot word in Moscow,right now,is a second campain against Georgia this summer,not probable,in my opinion,but serving somebody's interests

It would be hard to imagine a war against Russia. But if we consider it theoretically and with no nukes involved, a defeated Russia wouldn't suit China's interests because it would leave her alone and surrounded. So if someone tries to take Russia out they will stand with it. Maybe not on day 1 but if they see Russia starting to collapse they will help it out.


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guina
Posted: July 01, 2009 12:16 pm
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Hm,yes and no.The situation is very complex,depends who attack R,if Ch. feels thretened,what perspectives a defeat of R. openes for Ch. in Amur region.etc.Dont forget that China has now a vested interest in well being of U.S.because of bilions of $ it helds in US treasury bonds and the main market for its goods is US.And,while Russia has a long and consistent history of foreign agression,China,historicaly,has none( I dont count the Vietnam incident in the late seventies,when they got a very healthy beating).So nobody can count China in its pocket.
But this are all scenarios,nobody is going to attack Russia and Russia is not in a position to start a major conflict,and wont be for quite a long time.What we have is an alliance propeled by two diferent engines,the will to restore its former position on the part of Russia and pure economic interests for China.
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MMM
Posted: July 02, 2009 02:32 pm
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the will to restore its former position on the part of Russia and pure economic interests for China

IMO, none of those exclude a "little" war (controlled, local war, unlike Iraq). We saw what happened in Georgia; let's hope it won't happen in, say, Taiwan...


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Hadrian
Posted: July 02, 2009 03:30 pm
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The russians and China had for a long time diferends, maybe not entirely solved.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict

China is a emerging superpower, no sense for them to have a too strong Russia at his borders, who can for example, threaten them with the oil pipeline, or be a strong competitor on the 2nd and 3rd world markets.
But they will opose a complete anihillation or brakaway of Russia, because this will bring instability and secesionist movements (there are some of this in the asian ethnic regions of Russian Federations, just waiting for the right oportunity...) to their borders. Think Tibet, for example...
On the other hand, think where all our computer parts and home electronics is made. Economic losses can be biiiig for China without access to US and EU market.
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MMM
Posted: July 02, 2009 05:24 pm
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Unfortunately, all those things are true, as were true for many states at many times throughout history (although they didn't have neither CNN, nor Internet at those times) but at some point a charismatic demented leader would overthrow all reasoning, beginning a war. Need I give examples?
PS - my point is that not always, not even most of the times, the good sense would prevail. So, even if bad for all sides, a war eventually will begin somewhere!


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guina
Posted: July 02, 2009 06:31 pm
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Yeah,Triple M,i agree,a " small war " can allways be profitable ,and popular in times of popular discontent.
And Hadrian,you are corect except one thing,Russia can never be a competitor ( comercialy ) ,not in 2-ond,3 -rd ,or 10 th world.Except natural resources they export virtualy nothing ( oh,votca,caviar ).First time you are in the west look for russian products in the shops !
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MMM
Posted: July 02, 2009 07:36 pm
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Oot: votca and caviar are also Russian resources! But I've seen a couple of days ago something about Russian weapons' exports: they're HUGE!


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Hadrian
Posted: July 02, 2009 08:28 pm
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Weapons: that`s what I`m talking about...
And China has a lot of AK`s and other clones to sell.
Also with own improvements (Silkworm, for example).
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Hadrian
Posted: July 02, 2009 08:35 pm
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China and India also fought, China is supporting Pakistan and selling weapons, also common armament programs (fighters).

Brazil..., hmmm... if they really want to fight for Russia, what can they do?
Swim batalions trough Atlantic? They lack strategic projection capability. dry.gif

And economics dictates them otherways...

So only Venezuela remains... rolleyes.gif

It is indeed a multicontinental alliance... laugh.gif
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guina
Posted: July 03, 2009 05:23 pm
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If you speak of weapons,you are right,of course !But you can not built a prosperous country only from selling weapons.As for above mentioned alliance it has more a propaganda goal.
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Imperialist
Posted: July 03, 2009 05:39 pm
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QUOTE (Hadrian @ July 02, 2009 03:30 pm)
The russians and China had for a long time diferends, maybe not entirely solved.

China is a emerging superpower, no sense for them to have a too strong Russia at his borders, who can for example, threaten them with the oil pipeline, or be a strong competitor on the 2nd and 3rd world markets.
But they will opose a complete anihillation or brakaway of Russia, because this will bring instability and secesionist movements (there are some of this in the asian ethnic regions of Russian Federations, just waiting for the right oportunity...) to their borders.

You should read Article 9 of the treaty of cooperation that Russia and China signed at the start of this century. Sounds very much like an alliance to me.


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