Alliances, current configuration

[Hadrian]

Japan wanst his Kurile back...

http://www.infomondo.ro/extern/5023-japoni...e-la-rusia.html

Unfortunatly only in romanian.

Maybe Germany should ask for Königsberg.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Königsberg

Seems like the right moment, Russia is quite isolated, and in financial dificulty.

Then China ask for more favourable terms regarding the border (not fully solved)...

And some islamic states to recognise the independence of Chechenia. This will start the whole thing over in the region... . Maybe then Japan and Germany tell they will recognise also the independence if they don`t get what they want.

Then other secession movements appear in the assian regions, and Russia breaks apart (again).

[Hadrian]

This might be a lucky wish....

[MMM]

You read too much Sci-Fi! If this was real, figure out a bunch of regions owned by series of "lords of war", nuclear-armed! Maybe not better than today's "bear"...

[Hadrian]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090709/ap_on_...ethnic_tensions

An example why China will support Russia up to a point. They don`t want bad examples just over the border for his own people.

[Hadrian]

And what is going on on the other side of the border...

http://www.nineoclock.ro/index.php?page=de...=20090817-21195

The bad example....

This can easily spread in other areas with muslim population of Russia, closer to China`s borders. In that moment the situation becomes dangerous also for muslim areas in north of China.

Pakistan and India have also serious issues with islamic movements, so here we start to see a common enemy. But it's from within, not from outside.

From Brasil side, they don`t fit. I guess they want foreign investmens and preferential acces to huge markets. A lot of sugar and coffee to sell..

This post has been edited by Hadrian on August 18, 2009 03:04 pm

[guina]

The unrest in northern Caucasus is mainly caused by nationalistic,political and economic reasons.The wahabism ( radical islam ) took only recently (relatively )a tramp on abovementioned causes.In Tatarstan,where economic situation is fair ,we see no such developments.

[MMM]

I'm not sure that Putin (forget Medvedev, thus) will allow any turbulences in the area; IMO, all the turbulences have just "resurfaced"; I mean no new zone has appeared on the troubles' map. Am I wrong?
PS: Guina, not only the economy is better ther, but I guess also the KGB/FSB is still strong there

[guina]

Triple M,you are not wrong in asuming that no new conflict area appeared inCaucasus,but you are wrong if you think that Putin can do much about it.He (they ) are toying now with the idea of introducing a state of emergency in Ingushetia ,but finding a new Kadirov is not an easy job and Chechnya's
pacification turned into creation of a clan state that is for all means and purposes independent while sucking from federal budget enormous sums.
As for FSB ,corupt and birocratic,is far from being a new KGB Iallthough it tries)

[Hadrian]

Mr. Putin isn`t omnipotent, altough his carefully image building (pretty much created in the style of soviet propaganda) tryies to make us believe so. His posing works with european leaders trying to compromise in order to insure calm and gas supply at any cost, but those peasants with AK`s don`t undesrtand this elaborate things....
As for KGB/FSB, it is also a little of a myth, just like our Securitate, but much more corupt. I guess that if you have the right amount of money, you could buy even the head of Putin from them.

[MMM]

That would be a big amount needed! But the question stands like that: does the "pacification" process worth the costs from the Russian side? What other options are there for Putin? And of course he's not omnipotent, but he's a little like in that joke with the Soviet's 6-feet-midget which won the competition for the biggest midget in the world, isn't he? Until I'll see some real signs of opposition to him - too bad for Kasparov, though - I'll have to believe he does have a lot of strength.

[guina]

Sorry guys,just came back.
Kasparov,Kasianov,Nemtzov,Chodorkovsky,have no impact on present russian society,as ,I'm convinced,you know.The bigest hit is a guy called Iosif Djugashvily," The efficient manager",as he appears in the new history scool-manuals.I counted at least 40 ( forty )new titles in Arbat book shop dedicated to the "father of all peoples ".The seller lady ,told me that only one was critical.As for options,MMM,Vladimir Vladimirovici has none and i dont think its in our best interest to see a Caucasian Chalifate, and since the human life is the cheapest commodity there,it will go on like this.
And,yes,Hadrian,Putin ( or rather the cooperative he represents )masterfully uses the soviet-goebells style propaganda creating a false impresion about R. might.
PS. The gas& petroleum weapon has two blades, europeans are cold = russians starve.