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Imperialist
Posted: May 07, 2012 08:16 am
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That's a de facto alliance. Formalizing it would have been the SU to join the Tripartite Pact.


No it's not, the Soviet Union simply maintained peacetime relations with Germany, while Britain and France went at war with it. B&F being at war and imposing a blockade on Germany didn't obligate others to follow suit if they didn't want to. And reaching an agreement on spheres of influence is not an alliance either.

QUOTE
By ordering the mobilization ( with a corresponding increase of 3x by the Red Army ) on August 19 1939. In 2 years they had to act or demobilize the man or the country would collapse from the economic strain.


Your statement was: So in august 1939 he sets the date for the attack as summer 1941. Setting the date for an attack and just ordering a mobilization are two different things.

QUOTE
He didn't get anything by waiting. The Soviet Union was strongest in 1941. As days passed, Germany was getting stronger and he technical superiority enjoyed by the SU in 1941 would have rapidly eroded.


No, Germany was getting weaker and increasingly dependent on Soviet economic support that could have stopped at any point in the future. Even Hitler recognized this and pointed it out. That is the whole rationale behind Germany attacking the Soviet Union.

QUOTE
As if it's the same starting the war on your terms or getting attacked and having the front line army destroyed...


So attacking when 1) the element of suprise is gone and 2) the enemy is free to concentrate on a single front means starting the war on "your terms" according to you?

QUOTE
BS. The main forces were right on the frontier. Hundreds of head quarters were overran in the very first day. Entire divisions and armies were left without command.
On june 13 the entire 1st echelon comprising of 170 divisions moved right on the state border. At the same time, the 2nd echelon comprising of 70 divisions moved from inside the SU towards the western border.


The 170 division you speak of were part of the 1st strategic echelon.
That echelon was itself organized in 3 operational echelons. Here is how they were deployed according to Glantz:

1st operational echelon - 57 divisions deployed 10-50km from the border.
2nd operational echelon - 52 divisions deployed 50-100km from border.
3rd operational echelon - 62 division deployed 100-400km from the border.

Then there was a 2nd strategic echelon consisting of 57 divisions deployed beyond 400km from the border.

Obviously there were "cushions".

QUOTE
They didn't had forces to attack more airfields. Given 1200 Luftwaffe planes  ( 600 something involved in the first attack ) it means 10 per airfield. The Luftwaffe simply did not have enough power to strike decisively more airfields .


The point was not how much power the Luftwaffe had, but how many Soviet airfields could have been there.

If 1,200 Soviet planes were destroyed in 66 airfields and the Soviets had a total of around 7,000-7,500 planes deployed in airfields in the west, on how many airfields could they have been deployed? I think it's called "regula de trei simpla" and the result is far from the 1,200 airfileds you said there were there.




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PaulC
Posted: May 07, 2012 12:05 pm
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That's a de facto alliance. Formalizing it would have been the SU to join the Tripartite Pact.


No it's not, the Soviet Union simply maintained peacetime relations with Germany, while Britain and France went at war with it. B&F being at war and imposing a blockade on Germany didn't obligate others to follow suit if they didn't want to. And reaching an agreement on spheres of influence is not an alliance either.


LoL. They signed a PACT . What did England and France, the allies, sign ? Germany and the Soviet Union started to cooperate at the end of the first world war. The Germans had technology and know-how, the russians had the space needed far away from controlling eyes of the Allies.
Not only did they allowed Germany to overcome the British blockade, but they offered bases in the far north from which Norway was attacked. So neutral Soviet Union, offers harboring facilities to the belligerent Kriegsmarine and you say "the Soviet Union simply maintained peacetime relations with Germany". Is this a joke ?

QUOTE


Your statement was: So in august 1939 he sets the date for the attack as summer 1941. Setting the date for an attack and just ordering a mobilization are two different things.


It should be pretty obvious from the wording that date in this context doesn't mean the day and the hour, but the time frame.
Secondly, mobilization IS war. When an the Red Army started mobilization, no matter how had they tried to conceal it, the Germans noticed it. We're talking hear about the complete shift of the state from peace conditions to war-like state. The army is expanded drastically, the economy is put on a war footing. The whole country prepares itself.
But there is a problem. Once you start mobilization ( even if in secret, not open like the other belligerents ), the sheer scale of it raised alarms in neighboring countries. And they start to mobilize too. In the end, it becomes a contest between who is ready sooner and can deliver the first strike.

Soviet intentions and war preparations became apparent to Hitler on 2 occasions :
-summer 1940 when the SU annexed the Baltic countries, Basarabia and Bukovina.
-November 1940 when Molotov asked impossible demands : Bulgaria under soviet control, Finland in the soviet sphere, basis in the Baltic Sea and the Skagerak straits and the Dardaneles.

QUOTE
Extremely secret. To V.M. Some directives for the Berlin visit. (November 11, 1940)

1. Purpose of visit:

a) To find out the true intentions of Germany and all the participants of the pact of three (Germany, Italy and Japan) in the execution of the plan to form the ‘New Europe’ and similarly the ‘Great Eastern-Asian space’: the borders of the ‘New Europe’ and the ‘Eastern-Asian space’; character of government structure and relationship of different European governments in ‘New Europe’ and in ‘Eastern-Asian Territory’; stages and time frame of realisation of these plans and, at least those which are planned at earliest; prospects of other countries joining the pact of three; position of USSR in these plans in the present and in future.

cool.gif To prepare the initial draft of the spheres of interests of USSR in Europe and also in Central Asia and Middle East, to try and explore the possibilities of agreement on these with Germany (and similarly with Italy; considering the continuation of the negotiations in Moscow, to which Ribbentrop must come in near future no such agreement should yet be signed with Germany and Italy at the given stage of negotiations.

2. Proceeding from that, that Soviet-German agreement on the partial segregation of the spheres of interest of USSR and Germany, has due to current events exhausted, (except in case of Finland), to achieve in negotiations the inclusion of the following to the sphere of interest of USSR:-

a) Finland: on the basis of the Soviet-German agreement of 1939, Germany must overcome all the difficulties and misunderstandings (withdrawal of German armed forces, curtailment of all political demonstrations in Finland and Germany which are against the interests of USSR)

cool.gif Danube: In the parts of Danube adjoining sea: – in accordance to the directives to Com. Sobolev. (Sobolev Arkady Aleksandrovich: – 1939-1942 Gen. Secretary to National Committee on International affairs of USSR. He visited Bulgaria in 1940 with Soviet proposal to conclude the pact for mutual cooperation).

Similarly to state our dissatisfaction that Germany did not consult USSR on the matter of guarantees and about sending troops to Romania.

c) Bulgaria: – Should be the major issue of dialogues. In agreement with Germany and Italy it should belong to the sphere of influence of USSR on the same grounds guarantee to Bulgaria will be provided by USSR, as it is done by Germany and Italy in respect to Romania, with deployment of army of USSR in Bulgaria.

d) The question of Turkey and its future cannot be decided without our participation, since we have serious interests in Turkey.

e) Question of long term future of Romania and Hungary is much to our interest as they border USSR, and we wish to conclude agreements on these issues.

f) Question of Iran cannot be decided without the participation of USSR as we have serious interests there. Do not discuss this unless it is required.]

g) Concerning Greece and Yugoslavia we want to know what Axis powers are planning.

h.) Concerning Sweden USSR stands by the opinion that preserving its neutrality is in the interests of USSR and Germany. Does Germany also stand on the same position?

i) The USSR as a Baltic state is concerned about free transit of vessels from the Baltic in times of peace and war through the Great and Little Belts, Oresund, Kattegat, and Skagerrak. It would be best, on the example of the Conference on the Danube, to arrange a conference on this question with the representatives of the interested countries.

j) On Spitzbergen: our coal concessions must get the work contract.

3. Transit Germany-Japan – We are in commanding position. That should be in mind.

4. If enquired about our relationship with Turkey: – Inform about our reply to Turkey; specifically: we have told them that in the absence of pact of mutual cooperation with USSR they have no right to demand help from USSR.

5. If asked about our relationship with England, then inform in the spirit of exchange of opinions at Stalin’s dacha.

6. Say, we were informed about the English proposals for peace made through Roosevelt from German side. Is it in line with the reality and what is the reply?

7. On the possible question on our relationship with USA reply, that USA is also asking us: whether we can provide support to Turkey and Iran in case of any threat arising to them. We have not yet replied to these questions.

8. Ask. Which are the borders of the ‘East-Asian Space’ as per the pact of three.

9. With respect to China in a secret protocol, as one of the points of this protocol; say that it is absolutely necessary to achieve an honourable peace for China (Chiang Kai-shek); in which USSR, maybe with participation of Germany and Italy, is prepared to take the responsibility to mediate. At the same time we are not against Indonesia being recognised as belonging to the Japanese sphere of influence. (Manchuguo remains with Japan).

10. Propose peaceful action (in the form of open declaration of the 4 blocs (if the outcome of the basic dialogue: Bulgaria, Turkey and others is positive) on the condition of conservation of the British Empire (less territories under Mandate) with all the possessions that are under English control and under the condition of non-interference in European matters and immediate withdrawal from Gibraltar and Egypt and similarly with compulsion of immediate handover to Germany of its earlier colonies. (Further the words: ‘and immediate restoration of status of a dominion state to India.’ have been struck off).

11. About Soviet-Japan relations: initially to stand within the limits of my answer to Tatskava (The Soviet stand was laid down in the answer to Tatskava; Japanese ambassador to Russia in Moscow was that USSR agrees to conclude a treaty of neutrality and not just of non-aggression – editorial note of the Russian edition).

12. To ask for the future of Poland: on the basis of the agreement of 1939.

13. About compensation for belongings in the Baltic states: 25% in one year, 50% and three years (in equal instalments).

14. On economic matters: in case of satisfactory direction of the dialogues.


When Hitler heard of this, he lost his mind. The soviet demands were nothing short of blackmail. His reaction was simple : he signed Directive 21 code named Barbarossa.

QUOTE


No, Germany was getting weaker and increasingly dependent on Soviet economic support that could have stopped at any point in the future. Even Hitler recognized this and pointed it out. That is the whole rationale behind Germany attacking the Soviet Union.


Germany attacked the SU because of 2 reasons :
-They realized the SU was a direct threat whose interest lie in Europe ( Germany tried to divert them south )
-England could not defeat Germany ( no land army ) while Germany couldn't defeat England ( lack of navy and air force power ). So they were at an impasse. The logical outcome would have been peace. The simple fact that the British weren't considering his peace proposals, made Hitler realize that he British hope lie in the East. Hope as in the Soviet Union invading Germany and actively pushing the Russians for this.


QUOTE


So attacking when 1) the element of suprise is gone and 2) the enemy is free to concentrate on a single front means starting the war on "your terms" according to you?


How is the element of surprise gone ? How was Germany free to concentrate on a single front ?
Besides, once the Red Army steamroller started its push, the Werhmacht would have been cut in two. They simply lacked the reserves and the resources to recover.

QUOTE

The 170 division you speak of were part of the 1st strategic echelon.
That echelon was itself organized in 3 operational echelons. Here is how they were deployed according to Glantz:

1st operational echelon - 57 divisions deployed 10-50km from the border.
2nd operational echelon - 52 divisions deployed 50-100km from border.
3rd operational echelon - 62 division deployed 100-400km from the border.

Then there was a 2nd strategic echelon consisting of 57 divisions deployed beyond 400km from the border.

Obviously there were "cushions".


All the divisions that Glantz mentions were moving towards the border. They weren't "deployed", that's where the war caught them. It is interesting to speculate what would have happened when the deployment ( in progress at june 22 ) would have been done.

Secondly, I've attached maps with the deployment of the opposing forces were, where one can clearly see that both armies deployed to punch through weaker sectors and encircle in huge pincer movements the main concentrations of the enemy. Nobody cared about defense.

QUOTE


The point was not how much power the Luftwaffe had, but how many Soviet airfields could have been there.

If 1,200 Soviet planes were destroyed in 66 airfields and the Soviets had a total of around 7,000-7,500 planes deployed in airfields in the west, on how many airfields could they have been deployed? I think it's called "regula de trei simpla" and the result is far from the 1,200 airfileds you said there were there.


I've already attache an US Air Force analysis of the situation which has all the details you need from the Luftwaffe guy in charge of preparing the assault.

http://www.worldwar2.ro/forum/index.php?sh...indpost&p=85631

This post has been edited by PaulC on May 07, 2012 12:06 pm
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Imperialist
Posted: May 07, 2012 02:12 pm
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LoL. They signed a PACT . What did England and France, the allies, sign ?


Yes, they signed a non-aggression pact with an attached agreement on spheres of influence. The USSR did the same with Japan in 1941. Those are not alliances, sorry. Maybe you are looking for a different term, like "benevolent neutrality" for example.

QUOTE
Not only did they allowed Germany to overcome the British blockade, but they offered bases in the far north from which Norway was attacked. So neutral Soviet Union, offers harboring facilities to the belligerent Kriegsmarine and you say "the Soviet Union simply maintained peacetime relations with Germany". Is this a joke ?


The blockade imposed by Britain was unilateral and not universal in character. The Soviet Union had no obligation to stop trading with Germany.

As for the bases in the Soviet Union, from what I've read Basis Nord was not used by the Kriegsmarine in its attack on Norway.

QUOTE
It should be pretty obvious from the wording that date in this context doesn't mean the day and the hour, but the time frame.
Secondly, mobilization IS war. When an the Red Army started mobilization, no matter how had they tried to conceal it, the Germans noticed it. We're talking hear about the complete shift of the state from peace conditions to war-like state. The army is expanded drastically, the economy is put on a war footing. The whole country prepares itself.
But there is a problem. Once you start mobilization ( even if in secret, not open like the other belligerents ), the sheer scale of it raised alarms in neighboring countries. And they start to mobilize too. In the end, it becomes a contest between who is ready sooner and can deliver the first strike.


The problem is not the date but your contention that an order to mobilize is in effect an order to attack and can't be anything but that. Which is not necessarily true. Stalin could just as well have ordered partial or full demobilization in 1941.

QUOTE
How is the element of surprise gone ? How was Germany free to concentrate on a single front ?


I was talking about strategic surprise, and the element of strategic surprise disappeared since you yourself said:

QUOTE
The simple fact that the British weren't considering his peace proposals, made Hitler realize that he British hope lie in the East. Hope as in the Soviet Union invading Germany


As for Germany free to concentrate the bulk of its forces on a single front... well do you deny this was the case in 1941?

QUOTE
All the divisions that Glantz mentions were moving towards the border. They weren't "deployed", that's where the war caught them.


They were in process of being deployed according to that plan of deployment. 2 strategic echelons, the first consisting of 3 operational echelons with certain depths.

QUOTE
I've already attache an US Air Force analysis of the situation which has all the details you need from the Luftwaffe guy in charge of preparing the assault.


Why is that USAF analysis (which BTW is not in the link you offered) based solely on what a Luftwaffe guy said in 1941?





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PaulC
Posted: May 07, 2012 03:30 pm
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Yes, they signed a non-aggression pact with an attached agreement on spheres of influence. The USSR did the same with Japan in 1941. Those are not alliances, sorry. Maybe you are looking for a different term, like "benevolent neutrality" for example.


So the cooperation went as far as the SS and NKVD signing a agreement of assistance and exchange of jews/white russians and you compare it with Japan ?
Not only did the SU deliver strategic material to Germany, but it went to extra lengths and acquired in its name materials which were destined for Germany and they didn't had.

What happened between 1939-1941 went far beyond simple or benevolent neutrality. It was much more deeper and went from commercial to military and even in between the repression apparatus.

QUOTE


The blockade imposed by Britain was unilateral and not universal in character. The Soviet Union had no obligation to stop trading with Germany. 

As for the bases in the Soviet Union, from what I've read Basis Nord was not used by the Kriegsmarine in its attack on Norway. 


Unilateral ?When your empire covers 1/6th of the globe and the RN is the largest in the world it doesn't matter if it was unilateral or not. How much merchandise did the US sent to Germany ? rolleyes.gif

Secondly, the first paragraph destroys your entire premise : indeed, the SU had no obligation to stop trading with Germany. So why did they ? Why did they sent millions of tons on cereals, rubber, oil, zinc, chromium, manganese, and all kinds of other strategic materials ?

If Stalin was afraid of Germany and wanted peace, all had to do was not to enter into a commercial agreement with Germany. All of a sudden, the war material situation in Germany would have worsened significantly. No oil, no war materials, the German industry and the Army would suffer accordingly, rendering them incapable of continuing the war. There would have been no Battle of Britain without soviet oil.

How do you explain this paradox ? If you are afraid of someone, you don't feed him to gain strength over you. Plain and simple.
The only reasonable explanation is that you are feeding him to fight somebody else; nicely explained in Stalin's Aug 19 1939 speech : supply Germany, not enough to gain too much strength, not to little to impede its war in the west.
Up until summer 1941, this worked like a charm.

QUOTE


The problem is not the date but your contention that an order to mobilize is in effect an order to attack and can't be anything but that. Which is not necessarily true. Stalin could just as well have ordered partial or full demobilization in 1941.


Always an order for mobilization = order for attack. France and England declared mobilization on Sept 1, on Sept 3rd they declared war.
Same was in 1st ww1. But the element of surprise is gone. Since from by simultaneous mobilization and war declaration, you lose the effect of surprise. So the Soviet Union started a secret mobilization on Sept 1 1939 but undeclared. The public mobilization was meant to be declared on Day M ( July 6th according to some ).

As for the second contention, that's absolutely ridiculous. You triple the army size, increase war production significantly, disrupt the entire economy with the draft and the transport network with the movement of troops and equipment only to send everybody home 2 years later ?

The Red Army WAS on the border on June 22 and millions more were heading in that direction. And all, starting with Stalin himself did not believe the Germans would attack. So why millions were on the border and millions more were heading towards it ? Why were tens of thousands of tanks, hundreds of thousands of rail carriages with ammunition, fuel and spares delivered in the border region ? Just to be captured by the Germans ? Stalin did not believe in the German attack up until 2-3 hours before it. The movement itself started on May 15 when the Germans were busy in Greece and Crete. It picked up pace and on June 13 it turned into an amazon of forces from all over the SU heading towards the border. BUT NOBODY EXPECTED THE GERMAN ATTACK. All were shocked when it happened.

You can either make a leap of faith ( because faith is necessary here in order to stick to the official history ) or simply allow critical thinking to play its part : Stalin laid out the vision on August 19, 1939.
-For the World Revolution to succeed we need war and destruction in Europe
-Germany will attack Poland if we sign a deal with it and divide Poland
-With its back secured and supplied by us, Germany will deal once and for all with the Versailles treaty
-Once the west is crushed and Europe is under the brown boots, everybody will ask for our liberation

All of Soviet Union actions in 1939-1941 are reflected in the speech. And conversely, the speech is proven true simply because what was said in it was followed to the letter by real life actions of the Soviet Union. Only the last one was foiled by the German attack. They were preempted by 2 weeks.


QUOTE


I was talking about strategic surprise, and the element of strategic surprise disappeared since you yourself said:

QUOTE
The simple fact that the British weren't considering his peace proposals, made Hitler realize that he British hope lie in the East. Hope as in the Soviet Union invading Germany


As for Germany free to concentrate the bulk of its forces on a single front... well do you deny this was the case in 1941?


Well the strategic surprise disappeared, true, the moment German Intelligence pieced together the massive Red Army deployments, the anti-German propaganda in the Red Army and Russia, the putting of the economy on a war footing, the Balkan involvement of the soviet intelligence and the Anglo-Soviet negotiations.

For Hitler, it was clear the soviets were up to something. And the threat was so massive, he had to abandon plans to subdue England. He realized if the massive colossus ( not stumbling ) would be allowed the first strike, they were dead. And he said it with his own words and we have the recording from the Finns.

QUOTE

They were in process of being deployed according to that plan of deployment. 2 strategic echelons, the first consisting of 3 operational echelons with certain depths.


I think the Glantz failled miserably here. He simply looked were the forces were and thought they must have 3 operational echelons in the first strategic echelon when instead he witnessed wawes of formation in their move towards the west.

And btw, there weren't 2 strategic echelons; there were 3. The 3rd one was comprised of NKVD troops.

QUOTE


Why is that USAF analysis (which BTW is not in the link you offered) based solely on what a Luftwaffe guy said in 1941?


The link directed you to an analysis done by a US Air Force officer on the SU attack. The Luftwaffe guy, happened to be the major in charge with intelligence gathering and planning the strikes for the Luftwaffe. He identified the no of airfields, the VVS order of battle, analyzed the losses and the success of the strikes.
Who exactly, for God's sake, is more reliable than this ?

This post has been edited by PaulC on May 07, 2012 03:33 pm
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Posted: May 07, 2012 04:28 pm
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QUOTE (PaulC @ May 07, 2012 03:30 pm)


QUOTE
So the cooperation went as far as the SS and NKVD signing a agreement  of assistance and exchange of jews/white russians and you compare it with Japan ?
Not only did the SU deliver strategic material to Germany, but it went to extra lengths and acquired in its name materials which were destined for Germany and they didn't had.

What happened between 1939-1941 went far beyond simple or benevolent neutrality. It was much more deeper and went from commercial to military and even in between the repression apparatus.


Cooperation =/= alliance. Not even close cooperation =/= alliance. Trade =/= alliance. Agreements on all kinds of issues =/= alliance. Maybe you should check what an alliance is.

QUOTE
Unilateral ?When your empire covers 1/6th of the globe and the RN is the largest in the world it doesn't matter if it was unilateral or not.


I think you are confused. What does territorial extent has to do with the way a decision is taken? The decision was unilateral irrespective of how large the British empire was. Unilateral means the Soviet Union was not consulted and not obliged to establish its own blocked.

QUOTE
Why did they sent millions of tons on cereals, rubber, oil, zinc, chromium, manganese, and all kinds of other strategic materials ?


Because they were not at war with Germany and countries engage in trade.

QUOTE
If Stalin was afraid of Germany and wanted peace, all had to do was not to enter into a commercial agreement with Germany. All of a sudden, the war material situation in Germany would have worsened significantly. No oil, no war materials, the German industry and the Army would suffer accordingly, rendering them incapable of continuing the war. There would have been no Battle of Britain without soviet oil. How do you explain this paradox ?


I never said Stalin was afraid of Germany.
But I also have no doubt Germany wasn't a small country he could simply ignore. It was a strong, militaristic, anti-communist country and after 1940 it was the strongest country on the Soviet Union's borders.

QUOTE
Always an order for mobilization = order for attack. France and England declared mobilization on Sept 1, on Sept 3rd they declared war.
Same was in 1st ww1. But the element of surprise is gone. Since from by simultaneous mobilization and war declaration, you lose the effect of surprise. So the Soviet Union started a secret mobilization on Sept 1 1939 but undeclared.


This is nonsense. Mobilizing doesn't necessarily mean you absolutely have to go to war. Besides, if you put it this way, why on earth would the Soviet Union mobilization take almost 2 years!!! This must have been the longest mobilization for war in history. Again, maybe you confuse the terms. A military build-up is not the same with mobilization.

QUOTE
As for the second contention, that's absolutely ridiculous. You triple the army size, increase war production significantly, disrupt the entire economy with the draft and the transport network with the movement of troops and equipment only to send everybody home 2 years later ?


A lot of things can happen in 2 years. Situations could change and yes, in light of possible changes you can order partial or full demobilization. Besides, in a country like the Soviet Union Stalin wouldn't be held to account. Would somebody ask him to pay for a change of mind/orders? Nope.

QUOTE
So why millions were on the border and millions more were heading towards it ? Why were tens of thousands of tanks, hundreds of thousands of rail carriages with ammunition, fuel and spares delivered in the border region ?


And where exactly would you have liked for them to be? Mongolia? Kazakhstan? The Arctic? It was natural for them to be where the biggest potential threat was - in the West.

QUOTE
Stalin laid out the vision on August 19, 1939.
-For the World Revolution to succeed we need war and destruction in Europe
-Germany will attack Poland if we sign a deal with it and divide Poland
-With its back secured and supplied by us, Germany will deal once and for all with the Versailles treaty
-Once the west is crushed and Europe is under the brown boots, everybody will ask for our liberation


Like I pointed out, that alleged speech outlined several possible outcomes. You are picking only the parts that suit your theory. BTW, the Versailles Treaty had died long before 1940.

QUOTE
For Hitler, it was clear the soviets were up to something. And the threat was so massive, he had to abandon plans to subdue England. He realized if the massive colossus ( not stumbling ) would be allowed the first strike, they were dead. And he said it with his own words and we have the recording from the Finns.


When was that clear for Hitler?

QUOTE
I think the Glantz failled miserably here. He simply looked were the forces were and thought they must have 3 operational echelons in the first strategic echelon when instead he witnessed wawes of formation in their move towards the west.


Those formations didn't move erratically towards the border, they were given certain deployments and those deployments were outlined above.

QUOTE
The link directed you to an analysis done by a US Air Force officer on the SU attack. The Luftwaffe guy, happened to be the major in charge with intelligence gathering and planning the strikes for the Luftwaffe. He identified the no of airfields, the VVS order of battle, analyzed the losses and the success of the strikes.
Who exactly, for God's sake, is more reliable than this ?


No, he estimated the number of airfields based on intelligence he received. Intelligence can be faulty, estimates can be wrong. A historian won't base something solely on one side's intelligence/data/estimate.















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PaulC
Posted: May 07, 2012 06:58 pm
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Cooperation =/= alliance. Not even close cooperation =/= alliance. Trade =/= alliance. Agreements on all kinds of issues =/= alliance. Maybe you should check what an alliance is.


LoL. I'm doing a Phd on cooperative and competitive strategies. Do you think I need to be told by you what an alliance is ?

In our context I would define alliance as collaboration to further a common interest. The formal form represented is represented by the secret protocols of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact. They collaborated on the division of Eastern Europe and establishment of spheres of influence. The collaboration itself, like I've showed before, spanned at multiple levels : military ( joined invasion of Poland ) , commercial ( massive trade agreements ) and even between the secret police ( exchange of "undesirables " ) . Some authors like Richard Watt named the pact as "Nazi-Soviet alliance".

But keep playing semantic games, what can I say.

QUOTE


I think you are confused. What does territorial extent has to do with the way a decision is taken? The decision was unilateral irrespective of how large the British empire was. Unilateral means the Soviet Union was not consulted and not obliged to establish its own blocked.


Unilateral as in Britain + Commonwealth + US ? Back then , the commonwealth actually meant something. And if you believe the blockade wasn't relevant because it was "unilateral" you're in a serious delusion.

QUOTE

Because they were not at war with Germany and countries engage in trade.

I never said Stalin was afraid of Germany.
But I also have no doubt Germany wasn't a small country he could simply ignore. It was a strong, militaristic, anti-communist country and after 1940 it was the strongest country on the Soviet Union's borders.


One line you say he wasn't afraid, the other line you say he couldn't ignore Germany. What could Germany do ? Occupy the Soviet Union to the Urals with horses and on foot ?

By refusing to supply Germany, Stalin would have stopped the war. Easy as that. We're in 1940 when everything runs on oil and rubber, not 1805 when you need fodder and horses.

QUOTE

This is nonsense. Mobilizing doesn't necessarily mean you absolutely have to go to war. Besides, if you put it this way, why on earth would the Soviet Union mobilization take almost 2 years!!! This must have been the longest mobilization for war in history. Again, maybe you confuse the terms. A military build-up is not the same with mobilization.


Maybe you need to become accustomed to Saphosnikov's work, you can find it on described on wikipedia. link

QUOTE
"Mobilization is the odium of war" is the title of one of the book's chapters. In it, Shaposhnikov draws mainly from the experience of World War I and the efforts all belligerents made to mobilize as quickly as possible in order first to try and crush the enemy before he himself had been able to mobilize, then to sustain a prolonged war effort. According to Shaposhnikov, the next war would be as long and intense as World War I had been, and would require several mobilizations throughout.
Shaposhnikov also presented mobilization as being a dangerous yet essential measure. On the one hand, he affirmed that governments had to be mindful of the fact that to mobilize was in itself a step towards a full-blown conflict: he underlined the fact that, just before World War I began, mobilization by a country had been tantamount to a declaration of war, as neighbouring countries reacted to such a threat with mobilizations of their own. On the other hand, an early mobilization allowed for reinforcing the lines of defense, whereas delays in mobilization heightened the risk of having to face a fully mobilized enemy army with understrength forces.
In Shaposhnikov's eyes, this and the effort required to sustain a total war, as demonstrated during World War I, pointed to the importance of "pre-mobilization" measures. The drafting of millions of servicemen, and especially, according to Shaposhnikov, the conversion of a country's economy to a war economy, took time and should not be improvised on the go. But, so as not to raise the alarm in neighbouring countries, "pre-mobilization" should, according to Shaposhnikov, consist of as much measures as could be taken to prepare for the actual mobilization, but all the while keeping them secret.


Saphosnikov was only man in the Soviet Union that Stalin called on his small name and not the official "comrade X " and he kept his book, "Brain of the Army" on his shelf.

Once you get inside Stalin's line of thought everything pieces together.

QUOTE
..

A lot of things can happen in 2 years. Situations could change and yes, in light of possible changes you can order partial or full demobilization. Besides, in a country like the Soviet Union Stalin wouldn't be held to account. Would somebody ask him to pay for a change of mind/orders? Nope.


Imaginary scenarios are contradicted by the Red Army principal theorist. If you want to argue facts with "alternative what ifs" , we better drop it.


QUOTE


And where exactly would you have liked for them to be? Mongolia? Kazakhstan? The Arctic? It was natural for them to be where the biggest potential threat was - in the West.


A threat that nobody believed in. LoL. How come Stalin did not believe it in possibility of the attack, yet the Red Army was moved at the border ?

QUOTE
.

Like I pointed out, that alleged speech outlined several possible outcomes. You are picking only the parts that suit your theory. BTW, the Versailles Treaty had died long before 1940.


The outcome was one and can be pieced together from well known facts. The conclusion is inevitable.

QUOTE


When was that clear for Hitler?


The moment the SU occupied Basarabia and Bucovina. In July 1940, Hitler decided to attack the SU.

QUOTE

Those formations didn't move erratically towards the border, they were given certain deployments and those deployments were outlined above.


And the point is that the position they were in at June 22 isn't reflecting their final destination.

QUOTE



No, he estimated the number of airfields based on intelligence he received. Intelligence can be faulty, estimates can be wrong. A historian won't base something solely on one side's intelligence/data/estimate.


Interesting. What other sources do you have for VVS airfields and losses except the German Luftwaffe personnel ? What other source did any historian have except the Luftwaffe analysis ?

This post has been edited by PaulC on May 07, 2012 07:01 pm
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QUOTE (PaulC @ May 07, 2012 06:58 pm)


QUOTE
LoL. I'm doing a Phd on cooperative and competitive strategies. Do you think I need to be told by you what an alliance is ?


What does your PhD have to do with anything? But yes, judging by the things you said on this thread I felt the need to tell you have to look at what an alliance is.

QUOTE
In our context I would define alliance as collaboration to further a common interest.


That's a very loose definition that would turn most of the agreements signed by states into "alliances" and interstate relations would become unnecessarily unclear and difficult to comprehend. I prefer the definition that includes the "casus foederis" thingy. Much clearer and logical.

QUOTE
Unilateral as in Britain + Commonwealth + US ? Back then , the commonwealth actually meant something. And if you believe the blockade wasn't relevant because it was "unilateral" you're in a serious delusion.


The USSR was not obliged to stop its own trade in raw materials with a belligerent in order to help the British blockade. We're not talking about international sanctions, we're talking about a unilateral blockade.

QUOTE
One line you say he wasn't afraid, the other line you say he couldn't ignore Germany. What could Germany do ? Occupy the Soviet Union to the Urals with horses  and on foot ?


In my book "couldn't ignore" =/= "fear" but I guess you're going to complain about semantics again.
What could Germany do? Attack.

QUOTE
By refusing to supply Germany, Stalin would have stopped the war. Easy as that. We're in 1940 when everything runs on oil and rubber, not 1805 when you need fodder and horses.


Not really, the moment the Germans attacked France they had plenty of oil in their stocks and the Soviet sales of oil represented a minimal share.

QUOTE
Maybe you need to become accustomed to Saphosnikov's work, you can find it on described on wikipedia.


So you're saying once mobilization is ordered the only outcome can be war and demobilization is not possible?

QUOTE
Imaginary scenarios are contradicted by the Red Army principal theorist. If you want to argue facts with "alternative what ifs" , we better drop it.


I'm sorry, I didn't use any imaginary scenario in what you quoted, I have no idea what you're talking about.

QUOTE
A threat that nobody believed in. LoL. How come Stalin did not believe it in possibility of the attack, yet the Red Army was moved at the border ?


Stalin refused to act based on the info of an imminent attack he received in June, but I don't think he ever dismissed the potential threat from Germany. And you haven't answered the question. Where would you have placed the Soviet Army? The Urals? rolleyes.gif

QUOTE
The outcome was one and can be pieced together from well known facts. The conclusion is inevitable.


No, the speech clearly presents several outcomes.

QUOTE
The moment the SU occupied Basarabia and Bucovina. In July 1940, Hitler decided to attack the SU.


Yes, that rules out the excuse that Germany preempted a Soviet attack.

QUOTE
And the point is that the position they were in at June 22 isn't reflecting their final destination.


The point is that your "all army right on the border" and "no cushion" claims are blatantly false.

QUOTE
Interesting. What other sources do you have for VVS airfields and losses except the German Luftwaffe personnel ? What other source did any historian have except the Luftwaffe analysis ?


I don't have sources on this at this point but that doesn't mean the laws of logic have been suspended. A 1983 article based on the 1941 estimate of a Luftwaffe guy may give a general idea about what the Luftwaffe knew and estimated at that time, but not an accurate idea about what was actually on the ground. I guess we would need a Soviet/Russian source to compare.


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Posted: May 08, 2012 05:46 am
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QUOTE


That's a very loose definition that would turn most of the agreements signed by states into "alliances" and interstate relations would become unnecessarily unclear and difficult to comprehend. I prefer the definition that includes the "casus foederis" thingy. Much clearer and logical.


I hope you realize that you are artificially narrowing the definition just so it suits your argument.

Secondly, you fall in your own trap : the Soviet Union had to attack Poland in order to fulfill its obligations under the signed agreement with Germany. Just that they allied themselves for aggressive, not defensive purposes. But that's not a counter-argument irrespective.

QUOTE

The USSR was not obliged to stop its own trade in raw materials with a belligerent in order to help the British blockade. We're not talking about international sanctions, we're talking about a unilateral blockade.


That's besides the point ( and also you fail to miss that by the sheer scale, in 1940 a British blockade meant nothing less than a total cut of Germany from the rest of the world except the Soviet Union and the Balkans ) . Why don't you answer why the Soviet Union supplied Germany since that was contrary to the argument you put forward, that is the SU perceived Germany as a threat.

QUOTE

In my book "couldn't ignore" =/= "fear" but I guess you're going to complain about semantics again.
What could Germany do? Attack.

Not really, the moment the Germans attacked France they had plenty of oil in their stocks and the Soviet sales of oil represented a minimal share.


Are you joking ? The moment Germany attacked France, their fuel stock was totally committed for the advance. Even so, they covered only 5 months of mobility warfare. Only through capturing French oil and increased deliveries from Romania/USSR did they replenish the stocks by end of 1940. In other words, Germany's fuel situation and other strategic material was always measured in months. In every scenario, including catching the massive Red Army deploying for attack and taking their huge reserves, the German drive in the SU was suicidal. In the best possible scenario, being supplied by the SU and capturing huge quantities of strategic materials in western USSR - what actually happened, they've failed. Without Soviet supplies it would have failed a lot sooner.

QUOTE


So you're saying once mobilization is ordered the only outcome can be war and demobilization is not possible? 


I'm not saying that. The Bible of the Red Army says that : mobilization is the joint effort of the entire state , from industry to peasants to the army and the state apparatus. We're not talking about mobilizing a contingent here, a few divisions.
We're talking about an all out push of the entire country to deliver a deadly blow, all its forces and industries committed.
We're talking about Total War, which in the SU was enforced with the mobilization laws of 1939-1940. They were so comprehensive that they weren't modified throughout the war. The industry became militarized, you were late for work, you ended in the Gulag. Children before the age of 16 were drafted in the factories before the German attack. Goebbels Total War , jan 31 , 1943 call, was already 3 years old in the Soviet Union.

And no, you can't demobilize from that without wrecking the entire country, economically and socially. It's all or nothing. And like Shaposhnikov said, the neighbors see that. Germany saw the massive war preparations. And they started to prepare themselves. In the end it was a matter of who is faster.

QUOTE

Stalin refused to act based on the info of an imminent attack he received in June, but I don't think he ever dismissed the potential threat from Germany. And you haven't answered the question. Where would you have placed the Soviet Army? The Urals?  rolleyes.gif


LoL. He's dismissal of info regarding the German attack started at about the same time he was informed about Barbarossa; that is December 1940.

Stalin, thoroughly logical couldn't fathom an irrational attack by the Germans. All the reports he received showed how unprepared Germany was. He couldn't believe Germany would act suicidal. Yet, they did. Caught between Britain ( and US ) in the west, threatened directly by the Red Army , Germany had no other option but to strike, irrespective of their chances of winning.

QUOTE


No, the speech clearly presents several outcomes.


This is getting boring : which outcome was implemented based on the now known facts ? Can't you look at it in reverse order ?
QUOTE

QUOTE
The moment the SU occupied Basarabia and Bucovina. In July 1940, Hitler decided to attack the SU.


Yes, that rules out the excuse that Germany preempted a Soviet attack.


The decision was made in response to the Soviet threat and continuous demands. Hitler couldn't have known at the time the Soviets were mobilizing to strike decisively next year, but his intuition and the intelligence he received ( its enough to read the meetings in Halder's journal ) pointed out something isn't right.

QUOTE


The point is that your "all army right on the border" and "no cushion" claims are blatantly false.


I'll use Glantz ( Barbarossa, 2001, page 16 ) since he seems to be the only source you grasp :

QUOTE
However, by 22 June 1941 neither the forward military districts nor the five reserve armies had completed deploying in accordance with the official mobilization and deployment plans. 10 As in so many other respects, the German attack on 22 June caught the Soviets in transition.

Worse still, Soviet war planners had fundamentally misjudged the situation, not only by concentrating their forces so far forward, but also by expecting the main enemy thrust to occur south of the Pripiat' Marshes. Thus the Red Army was off-balance and concentrated in the southwest when the main German mechanized force advanced further north.


LoL. So they were too far forward ( didn't I say just that a couple of posts back ? ) and secondly, they were in the move on June 22, the deployment not being completed. And one thing was sure : the deployment was towards the WEST, they weren't moving away from the border. The 3 echelons from the 1st echelon ( pun intended ) were nothing more than a reflection of reality on June 22. All the units were moving slowly west.

Besides, you can't get any closer to the border than they were at the time. Why ? because the formations are so huge, they would occupy all the roads. For example, the main German striking force in the France campaign, Panzer group Kleist, with 1200 tanks ( about the same as the Soviet 6th mechanized corp, just that there were 19 more in various conditions ) was spread on 4 columns (!!) each 400km long (!!) in Western Germany. Do you want to compare road density around Frankfurt with the one in 1941's Biellorussia or Western Ukraine ?

Thirdly, I like how Glantz says : " Soviet war planners had fundamentally misjudged the situation " by "concentrating their forces so far forward" and being "off-balance and concentrated in the southwest when the main German mechanized force advanced further north".

How does he explain this ? He doesn't. To him, they were simply stupid and misjudged the situation. But Soviet Intelligence provided them information about the German Army down to battalion size. How could they have been so grossly in error when they KNEW what the enemy was doing ?

The only reasonable explanation is that the Red Army prepared an attack of its own in accordance with its offensive doctrine and battle plans ( presented in an earlier post ), deployed in an offensive manner so it was able to cut the German front in two and then expand multiple thrusts from southern Poland, towards Hungary, Warsaw and forward to Silesia.

The Wehrmacht simply managed to outdo them by 2 weeks.

QUOTE


I don't have sources on this at this point but that doesn't mean the laws of logic have been suspended. A 1983 article based on the 1941 estimate of a Luftwaffe guy may give a general idea about what the Luftwaffe knew and estimated at that time, but not an accurate idea about what was actually on the ground. I guess we would need a Soviet/Russian source to compare.


This is becoming ridiculous. The Luftwaffe flew multiple reconnaissance missions over the Soviet Union and through photographic analysis identified Soviet Airfields. An airfield isn't like a platoon hiding in the forest. It is VISIBLE, especially when packed with aircraft like the Soviet ones were. Once he pieced everything together, they attacked the 66 most important ones. He probably would have attacked more, but they didn't have enough planes.

Once the said airfields were overrun, they analysed the effects of their strikes. There weren't any Russians there to do the same; they were too busy running away. So there aren't any other sources, because there wasn't anybody else there to do post-battle analysis except the Germans. So yes, it seems the laws of logic have been suspended...

This post has been edited by PaulC on May 08, 2012 05:46 am
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QUOTE (PaulC @ May 08, 2012 05:46 am)



QUOTE
I hope you realize that you are artificially narrowing the definition just so it suits your argument.


I hope you realize that the definition you use is so loose that it actually doesn't define anything. Your view that an alliance is "collaboration to further a common interest" would mean that the world is full of alliances!

QUOTE
Secondly, you fall in your own trap : the Soviet Union had to attack Poland in order to fulfill its obligations under the signed agreement with Germany. Just that they allied themselves for aggressive, not defensive purposes.


No, it wasn't an offensive alliance it was an agreement over spheres of influence in Eastern Europe in order to avoid any potential clash over them, so that the non-aggression pact holds. Germany expressed no interest in the Polish territory inhabited mostly by Ukrainians and Belorussians. After Germany attacked Poland the USSR moved in and established its influence there.

You can see a similar agreement over spheres of influence in the non-aggression pact that the Soviet Union signed with Japan in 1941. Are you going to assert the Soviet Union had an alliance with Japan too!??

QUOTE
That's besides the point ( and also you fail to miss that by the sheer scale, in 1940 a British blockade meant nothing less than a total cut of Germany from the rest of the world except the Soviet Union and the Balkans


The USSR not being obliged to stop its own trade in raw materials with a belligerent in order to help the British blockade is beside the point? I don't think so.

QUOTE
Why don't you answer why the Soviet Union supplied Germany since that was contrary to the argument you put forward, that is the SU  perceived Germany as a threat.


First of all they had signed the pact. Which came with economic agreements too. Secondly, although they had declared war on Germany the Western Allies hadn't fought much for many months. Stopping trade with Germany could have drawn Germany's attention in the East in order to get resources by force not by trade. A Stalin suspicious of the West's deals with Hitler or with the danger of seeing the West using Hitler against him might have had something to do with this.

QUOTE
Are you joking ? The moment Germany attacked France, their fuel stock was totally committed for the advance. Even so, they covered only 5 months of mobility warfare. Only through capturing French oil and increased deliveries from Romania/USSR did they replenish the stocks by end of 1940. In other words, Germany's fuel situation and other strategic material was always measured in months.


Germany had stocks of oil when it attacked France, so the Soviet Union stopping its sales wouldn't have stopped the blitzkrieg against France as you said earlier. Like I said before, the only way would have been for Stalin to launch an attack from the East.

QUOTE
I'm not saying that. The Bible of the Red Army says that : mobilization is the joint effort of the entire state , from industry to peasants to the army and the state apparatus. We're not talking about mobilizing a contingent here, a few divisions. We're talking about an all out push of the entire country to deliver a deadly blow, all its forces and industries committed.
We're talking about Total War, which in the SU was enforced with the mobilization laws of 1939-1940.


I know what mobilization is, what mobilization is wasn't the issue.

QUOTE
And no, you can't demobilize from that without wrecking the entire country, economically and socially. It's all or nothing.


Yeah, I call BS on that assertion. If you mobilize you can also demobilize if the situation allows it. At least partially.

It wasn't mobilization per se that started WWI, it was the context of the alliance systems and the fact that Germany's war plans called for a knock-out blow against France before Russia fully mobilized.

It was a specific context and a specific country's war plans that precipitated war once mobilization was ordered, not the inability to call off and demobilize!

QUOTE
Germany saw the massive war preparations. And they started to prepare themselves. In the end it was a matter of who is faster.


And you say it took the Soviet Union 2 years to mobilize?

QUOTE
This is getting boring : which outcome was implemented based on the now known facts ? Can't you look at it in reverse order ?


At the time of the speech they didn't know the future, did they?

QUOTE
The decision was made in response to the Soviet threat and continuous demands. Hitler couldn't have known at the time the Soviets were mobilizing to strike decisively next year, but his intuition and the intelligence he received ( its enough to read the meetings in Halder's journal ) pointed out something isn't right.


You're saying that as if it's common knowledge nowadays but poor Hitler didn't know at the time.

QUOTE
LoL. So they were too far forward ( didn't I say just that a couple of posts back ? ) and secondly, they were in the move on June 22, the deployment not being completed. And one thing was sure : the deployment was towards the WEST, they weren't moving away from the border.


Apparently you missed this fragment from Glantz, although you quote it:

However, by 22 June 1941 neither the forward military districts nor the five reserve armies had completed deploying in accordance with the official mobilization and deployment plans

They weren't moving "west" or "towards the border" or "to Berlin", they were deploying in accordance with the deplyment plans. Which I mentioned earlier.

QUOTE
Thirdly, I like how Glantz says : " Soviet war planners had fundamentally misjudged the situation " by "concentrating their forces so far forward" and being "off-balance and concentrated in the southwest when the main German mechanized force advanced further north".

How does he explain this ? He doesn't.


Actually he does. Stalin thought that in case of conflict with Germany the Germans would go for the resource-rich Ukraine and towards the oil-rich Caucasus.

QUOTE
This is becoming ridiculous. The Luftwaffe flew multiple reconnaissance missions over the Soviet Union and through photographic analysis identified Soviet Airfields. An airfield isn't like a platoon hiding in the forest. It is VISIBLE, especially when packed with aircraft like the Soviet ones were.


Intelligence is never perfect, that is why they say "estimates".

QUOTE
Once he pieced everything together, they attacked the 66 most important ones. He probably would have attacked more, but they didn't have enough planes.


So if the Luftwaffe destroyed 1,200 soviet planes on the ground on 66 airfields, and there were a total of around 7,500 Soviet planes deployed in the west, on how many other airfields were the remaining 6,300 planes deployed? 1,134? If that's the case then the Soviets were deploying an average of 5 airplanes per airfield. Or maybe only a handful of those alleged 1,200 airfields were "important"? Maybe most of them were emtpy, under construction or not important?

QUOTE
Once the said airfields were overrun, they analysed the effects of their strikes. There weren't any Russians there to do the same; they were too busy running away. So there aren't any other sources, because there wasn't anybody else there to do post-battle analysis except the Germans. So yes, it seems the laws of logic have been suspended...


Logic states that even if the Soviets were unable to do post-battle analysis surely they must have now how many airfields they built, right? So relying solely on a 1941 pre-war Luftwaffe intelligence estimate is kind of wrong. In the absence of other sources it may be fine, provided it is taken with a grain of salt and as what it is... an intelligence estimate of one of the belligerents. You however came here and said it as if it was the ultimate truth.


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Posted: May 08, 2012 07:52 pm
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Can you mention a source for the 670 occupied airfields?
670 occupied airfields would increase the average number of aircraft per airfield to rougly 15, given a total of 9,910 airplanes the VVS had in this part of the SU. Still a very low figure if one takes into account that some airfields were home to more than one aviation regiment (129 IAP, which was in the process of switching from I-16 to MiG-3 had 52 of the former and 57 of the latter).

The distribution was as following:
- VVS Leningrad Military District, 1,270 aircraft, deployed between Murmansk and Kandaksha, Petrozavodsk, Karelian Isthmus, Siverskaya and Leningrad
- VVS Baltic Special Military District, 1,211 aircraft, deployed at Kaunas, Alytus, Vilnius, Daugavpils, Riga, Liepaya
- VVS Western Special Military District, 1,789 aircraft, deployed near Bialystok, Brest-Litovsk, Grodno-Lida, Vitebsk, Minsk, SMolensk, Bobruysk
- VVS Kiev Special Military District, 1,913 aircraft, deployed near Lutsk, Kiev, Lvov, Ternopol, Stryy, Stanislav, Proskurov, Biyala Tserkov, Vinnitsa
- VVS Odessa Military District, 950 aircraft, deployed near Balti, Tiraspol, Cetatea Alba, Vorms, Razdelnaya, Fedorovka

The long range Bomber Aviation comprised of 1,332 aircraft and was deployed near Soltsy, Krechvitsy, Yedrovo, Bryansk, Orel, Karachev, Kursk, Shchigry, Oboyan, Shatalovo, Seshcha, Smolensk, Borovskoye, Shaykovka, Zaporozhye, Saki, Rostov-on-Don, Novocherkassk, Skomorokhy, Borispol.

Finally there were the 1,445 aircraft of the Northern Fleet, Red Banner Baltic Fleet and Black Sea Fleet.

All these summed up give a grand total of 9,910 aircraft. The data is taken from vol. I of Bergstrom & Mikhailov Black Cross - Red Star. A closer look at the areas were these forces were stationed will show that they were not confined to 250 km from the border (the strategic bomber corps especially). Thus the total number of aircraft in the 250 km band was actually lower and so would be the average per airfield. Taking this into consideration and the fact that there were many airfields with high numbers of airplanes on them, the number of active airfields was definately lower than 670.

Regarding the cadre issue, I have already went into great lengths in the discussion with osutacincizecisidoi in this very same thread and lack the time repeat what was already said. Maybe in a couple of weeks I will be able to do it. In the meantime, I am still waiting to see the source that certifies that all the officers purged in the late 30s were idiots, as you claimed.

I would also appreciate a tone down in the sarcasm and the use of LOL, BS etc. in the posts. It gives a slightly aggressive tone to the posts, which isn't something to be encouraged.
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Posted: May 10, 2012 01:50 pm
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QUOTE


Regarding the cadre issue, I have already went into great lengths in the discussion with osutacincizecisidoi in this very same thread and lack the time repeat what was already said. Maybe in a couple of weeks I will be able to do it. In the meantime, I am still waiting to see the source that certifies that all the officers purged in the late 30s were idiots, as you claimed. 


I will address the aviation topic later when I have more time.

*Edit - while I couldn't find at a quick search were I took the 670 from ( I need to search my browsing history in more detail ) , I found the 613 airfields figure from Mark Solonim.

Other figure is from Meltyukhov : 612 airfields at 01.01.1941 with 143 being under construction in 1941 for a grand total of 755.

http://www.paradoxian.org/hoi2wiki/index.p..._on_Soviet_RKKA
Regarding the fact that you've discussed it at length in the past, I read the thread to present day. What is apparent is this :

-nobody that criticizes Suvorov, including you and imperialist, have actually read his books. And when I meant read, that is actually analyzing with a cold mind what the guy says. To discuss him, these books are a must read ( in this order ) : Icebreaker, Last Republic I, Day M, The purges, Last Republic 2 and 3. All are available in Romanian from Polirom, there's a new 2011 edition.
-You base your argument on Glantz who avoids two things : present the defensive plans and make comparisons with the German Army.
-Most of the new Russian historians agree with Suvorov on the grand points.
-Most of the points you two raise are answered by Suvorov in his books. He also goes to length to respond to his critics including Gorodetski whom he demolishes.

Going back to the purges, I would suggest you read his book , Epurarea, since this can be read as a stand alone book. If you don't have it, PM me your address and consider it a gift meant to improve the debate. Once you've read it 2x we can discuss on the purges. Until then, we're down to " Stalin killed most of the officers of the Red Army, leaderless army, only 6 months on the job, 40000 killed, great geniuses eliminated ,etc ,etc ".

There are 2 books by Suvorov that weren't attacked by his critics : Day M and the Purges. These books don't leave any space for interpretation.

The thesis is very simple : to get to power in a revolution you need a certain breed of people. To maintain the power and expand it, you need a different breed.
Who were the communists forces that crushed Russia in 1917-1922 ? The lowest scum of society. Depraved, sadistic lunatics who won power by terrorizing the masses and destroying any opposition, real or potential. The horrors of the russian civil war are second to none. Once they got in power, they've reserved ranks and privileges from them. Mass murderes, pure chekists ( commisars ) now held army ranks. Of course, they also did not fear Stalin and challenged his power.

The purges were a cleansing of the state apparatus and the army of the most corrupt, depraved and hated lunatics by the population. For the forthcoming struggle, Stalin needed absolute control and a new generation of army and party personnel. Nobody would fight for Tuhacevski, Iakir, Frinovski, Dibenko, Blucher, Stern. Tambov, Orenburg, Ukraine, Crimea were all to vivid in the memory of the population.

The best parallel would be Romania in the 1950's. Who were the communists ? The lowest and most degenerated members of society. They broke the back of the peasantry and destroyed the middle class and the intellectuals. The metal worker from Grivita was now Army or Securitate colonel.

Imagine a war having started : who would have fought for this maniacs ? Would be young peasants who saw their land taken away, maybe beaten if protested, who saw the neighbours being carried to the "Canal" in the middle of the night, would they fight for their butcherers ? Would they fight for those who destroyed their village, families and forced them in collective farms ?

And while Securitatea shot many in mass graves throughout the country or exterminated them in labour camps, this was a walk in the park compared to the Russian Civil war. In Tambov, Tuhacevski used chemical weapons on rebel villages. To convince them of the paradise he was bringing.



QUOTE

I would also appreciate a tone down in the sarcasm and the use of LOL, BS etc. in the posts. It gives a slightly aggressive tone to the posts, which isn't something to be encouraged.


Remark taken.

This post has been edited by PaulC on May 14, 2012 01:00 pm
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Posted: May 11, 2012 06:19 pm
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In the opening post of this topic and according to many discussions here, Soviet Union planned her invasion in 1941.
I think more common is the belief that they planned their invasion of German occupied land in 1943. Some historians are mentioning this as well. The reason is simple: after the lessons learned during the Winter War with Finland, Stalin and his clique decided that the Red Army is not ready.
My grandfather mentioned that Russians officers taken prisoners told them about the planned Soviet invasion to occur in 1943. This sounded so strange during the Communist era, when all I could read was Nazi Germany = horrible aggressor, Soviet Union = peaceful innocent victim.

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Since we had a lot of discussions about deployment of the Red Army, I believe M. Solonin's description, book "june 23", to be a must read :


QUOTE
Chapter 8. Strategic deployment

Having finished (as yet) with all hypotheses, let's get back to military history, i.e. exact science of digits, dates and documents. Let’s start, as is customary in science, with terms and definitions. What does “strategic deployment” mean, as we have met this phrase so often in the previous chapter?
              In the military circles answer to this question is approximately as follows: “Strategic deployment is a package of actions for the purpose of switching armed forces from peaceful position into military position and provides for creation of AF groups at the seats of war. The most important components of strategic deployment are:
- switching of armed forces from peaceful to military position (mobilization deployment);
- operational deployment (creation and installment of forces groups in the seats of war);
- strategic regrouping of armed forces from internal regions of country into seats of war and between them; 
- deployment of first-priority strategic reserves”.
            When translating from academic language into ordinary one, strategic deployment - with regard to Red Army of 1941 – meant the following:
- first of all, army of peacetime should be supplied with missing people and machinery up to normal mode of wartime.
- secondly, load forces, machinery and ammunition onto railway echelons and transfer it to Western parts of USSR;
- thirdly, unload soldiers, cannons and tanks from echelons and deliver it to those regions where it needs to get ready to war operations and wait order.
Peculiarity of strategic deployment of Red Army had mainly two points. One was already discusses in Chapter 2, but because of its utmost importance, let's repeat it: number of divisions (regiments, brigade) of Red Army already during pre-war secret mobilization was almost fully aligned with normal quantity of armed forces in wartime. During first three months after announcing open mobilization, it was planned to form pretty well limited (30, i.e. approximately 15% of initial quantity) number of rifle divisions. Rifle divisions. All tank and motorized divisions, separate artillery regiments and brigades were already formed during two-year secret mobilization (and were contained within wartime tables or so-called “reinforced” tables, which made 80% out of wartime tables). In other words, mobilization deployment of Red Army during first phase boiled down just to roundout of units and formations at hand with crew and horses, automobiles and trucks.
Second feature of strategic deployment of Soviet land army was enormous size of the country, due to which scope and duration of railway delivery was extremely substantial. Enormous size of the country is undoubted and very important fact while preparing and conducting war by advantage. German generals would be extremely glad if they could place tank and artillery plants, chemical complexes producing explosives, and learning centers preparing soldiers and officers, thousands of kilometers away from the border.
But geographic conditions of the country didn’t allow them such a luxury, that’s why hundreds of thousands of British-American aviation bombs were thrown on all industrial centers of Germany without exception. The fact that in Soviet Union echelon with tanks had to spend week en route from plant in Chelyabinsk to the front, is just a “feature” which should be counted for while drawing up plans of strategic deployment and not a “misfortune”, about which one should start “lamentations” on the pages of history books. 
To be more specific about numbers, the situation was as follows. In spring of 1941 the whole armed forces of USSR (including army, aviation, fleet) counted 4,8 mln men. In May-June during so-called “big training sessions” (it wasn’t an improvisation, but planned in beforehand operation which got this name in good time) another 802.000 men were mobilized by personal summons, without announcing public mobilization. In total: 5,6 mln men were regimented before June 23, 1941. In total, after full mobilization of all commands of European part of USSR (including Ural and North-Caucasus commands) total number of armed forces according to MP-41 plan should have counted 7,85 mln men. (3, page 83, 4, page 643) By dividing this number by another one we get so-called “deployment ratio”, i.e. scale factor of increase of army number. In USSR it was extremely low, just 1.40. Or, in other words, number of army already during peacetime was 71% out of number of army of wartime. In other European countries number of army after mobilization increased many times. For instance, in Germany by August 25, 1939 (five days before commencement of war) only 35% of land forces divisions of wartime were mobilized. In France number of army from the beginning of mobilization were increased by 4 times, in poor Finland, which couldn't maintain big army during peacetime, - by 9 times...

Mobilization deployment (mobilization) is an important, but not the only component of the whole package of strategic deployment. Let’s examine now, how three other, interconnected tasks were executed (strategic regrouping of army from internal parts of the country onto the seats of war, creation and installment of forces groups in the seats of war, deployment of first-priority strategic reserves).
The last known pre-war document – reference “On deployment of Armed Forces of USSR in case of war commencement in West”, signed by deputy chief of General Staff of Red Army, Vatutin on June 13, 1941, - provided for the following distribution of land forces: (CAMD, f.16A, op. 2951, d.236, l. 65-69)
- 186 divisions (out of 303), 10 (out of 10) antitank artillery brigades, 5 (out of 5) airborne corps, 53 (out of 74)    artillery regiment GHqR within active Fronts
- 51 divisions within five (22, 19, 16, 24, 28) armies of General Headquarters reserves, deployed in line from
    Western border to line of Bryansk-Rzhev
- 31 divisions on Far East (within Zabaikalsk and Far East front armies)
- 35 divisions "on secondary parts of country’s border” (as in original – M.S.), including 3 divisions in the Crimea
From 186 divisions, added to active Western fronts, 100 (more than half) were deployed in Ukraine, Moldavia and in the Crimea. Half of tank (20 out of 40) and motorized (10 out of 20) divisions, included into active fronts, were to be placed in the same places.  Out of 51 divisions of GHQ reserve, directly on southwest front (Kiev SMD) 23 are concentrated (16th and 19th armies). ( 6, page.358-361 )
Even if this document would be the only source of information about pre-war Soviet Union, then it's possible, based on it, to deny critically any "strategic suddenness" of war which began on June 22, 1941. Red Army was waiting and preparing for war, and this preparation took character of large-scale strategic regrouping of forces. Disposition of created groups is obviously not accidental. Enormous concentration of forces on Western direction is pretty obvious, and within this direction – on South (Ukrainian) TMO.  The document doesn’t give grounds for assuming the direction – offensive or defending – of this concentration, but the fact of existence of some kind of Big Plan, for executing of which was built such grouping, doesn’t bring any doubts.
The reference, signed by Vatutin on June 13, 1941, doesn’t contain any mention on tasks and plans of forces actions. Just digits, numbers of armies, stations for unloading armies, needed number of carriages and echelons. But we can compare the actual deployment in June 1941 with well-known alternatives of operative program. For example, with “Considerations on plan for strategic deployment of Soviet Union forces in case of war with Germany and its allies" (May 1941), obviously offensive character of which was discussed in previous chapter. Let’s break a bit the chronological order of description, by pointing out the actual condition of Red Army forces as of June 22, 1941.
       

"Considerations”, May 41
"Reference”, June 13
    Actual confinement as of June 22, 1941
North front
Three armies, 21 / 4 / 2
------  22 / 4 / 2
14th, 7th, 23rd Armies, 21 / 4 / 2
Northwest front
Three armies, 23 / 4 / 2
------  23 / 4 / 2
27th, 8th, 11th Armies, 25 / 4 / 2
West front
Four armies, 45 / 8 / 4
------  44 / 12 / 6
3rd, 10th, 4th, 13th Armies, 44 / 12 / 6
Southwest front
Eight armies,122 / 28 / 15
------ 100 / 20 / 10
5th, 6th, 26th, 12th, 18th, 9th Armies,
80 / 20 / 10
GHQ reserves
armies
five armies, 47 / 12 / 8
five armies, 51/ 11 / 5
22nd, 20th, 21st, 19th, 16th, 24th, 28th Armies, 77 / 5 / 2
 
          Notes:
- first digit – total number of divisions, second digit – tank divisions, third – motorized divisions
- on June 21 Armies, expanded at South TMO, were divided into two fronts: Southwest and South,
  Table contains a total number of divisions in two fronts and in the Crimea
- according to Plan of Cover, after commencement of combat actions, two divisions of Northwest front, expanded in Estonia, were transferred to North front, but table doesn't say this.
 
It’s not difficult to see that real concentration of army in Western parts of USSR was done in direct accordance with “Considerations on plan for strategic deployment” as of May.
In three districts (Leningrad, Baltic and Western) which were transferred, accordingly, into South, Southwestern and Western fronts, coincidence of May plan and June fact is almost precise. Discrepancy of 4 tank and 2 motorized divisions, i.e. seeming increase of Western front group in two mechcorps, is most probably a result of clerk operation. No other new mechcorps in Belarus haven’t appeared, it’s just that forming 17 MC and 20 MC, didn’t counted for in May “Considerations”, were included into general list of Reference as of June 13.
A much bigger discrepancy is observed in South, although changes were, essentially, done there on paper and not in reality. Main combat grouping of Southwest front was created not by weakening three other fronts, but by regrouping into Kiev SDM 20 divisions from Kharkov, Orlov and Volga region districts. Still, during the second half of June another redistribution of forces between First and Second strategic echelons was done. Forces of internal districts weren’t transferred by organization into Kiev SMD (Southwest front), but were used for the purpose of expanding reserve armies (Second strategic echelon). In other words, two new armies were created which weren't counted for in Reference of June 13: 20th and 21st. Total number of divisions in GHQ reserves armies increased from 51 to 77, still first strategic echelon grouping on South TMO (Southwest and South fronts) appeared to be 20 rifle divisions smaller as was anticipated on June 13, 1941. Still, concentration of forces on South direction appeared to be the same explicitly highlighted: In home front of Southwest front now there were expanded three armies of the reserve (16th in Proskurov-Shepetovka district, 19th near Cherkassy, 21st near Chernigov).
Much more important is not such “paper” redistribution of one and the same corps and divisions from one army to another, but an actual progress of army regrouping from internal regions of country into seats of future war. On June 22 it was still far from completion. Out of 77 Second strategic echelon divisions not more than 17-20 divisions have arrived to planned regions of operative deployment. “Total number of body of troop’s transfers counted for 939 railway echelons. Wide advancement of forces and late terms of its concentration was determined by hiding methods and keeping regime of railroads work according to peacetime. By the beginning of war only 83 army echelons arrived to planned points, 455 were still en route…” (3, page 84 )
Sentence about “hiding methods and keeping regime of railroads work according to peacetime” deserves special attention. For multi-million army of the first half of XX century railroads became the most important type of armament, which to a large extent predetermined the outcome of main battles during both world wars. Accordingly, all countries (especially those which had such large armed forces as Germany and USSR) had elaborated during peacetime plans for switching railroads into “maximum defense transportation” regime. Idea of this definition and process is pretty clear: all trains, cargo and passengers stand and wait while echelons with troops, machines and ammunition will pass by into needed direction. Beside this, mobilization reserves of coal, steam trains, wagons are de-booked, armed guard of railway stations and hauls increases. Schedule of defense transportation within European part of USSR worked in (September 12, 1939) even during phase of strategic deployment of Red Army before commencement of war with half destroyed by Wehrmacht’s invasion Poland. However, in July 1941 nothing like this was done!
According to calculations of pre-war plans of Soviet command, enemy (Germans) needed 10 to 15 days, while Red Army - from 8 days for North to 30 days for Southwest fronts, needed for doing all transportation, planned for strategic deployment of forces. Practically, both sides (Germany and USSR) didn’t force, but per contra delayed terms of forces concentration. Delayed with pretty clear, mutual goal – not to scare away the enemy before time.
It’s hard to tell which event one should consider to be the beginning of concentration of German forces near border with USSR (first Wehrmacht divisions were transferred to East almost immediately after finishing combats in France), but in any event, strategic deployment for “Barbarossa” operation was stretched, at least, by four months. Plan of redeployment was broken down into five stages, while during early stages only infantry divisions were put towards border with USSR. In the beginning of April 1941 a group of German forces on East counted for only 43 infantry and 3 tank divisions, and though Soviet intelligence in its reports traditionally overstated this number almost twice as much (up to 70 infantry, 7 tank and 6 motorized divisions), such “concentration” didn’t give any grounds for assuming a forthcoming invasion of Wehrmacht. By the middle of May German grouping increased by 23 infantry and 1 motorized divisions. (1, p.304-305). This fact was discovered by Soviet intelligence as well, but even it easily fitted the version of “minimal precautionary measures”, distributed by Hitler’s secret services and adopted towards quite unreliable “partner” for dividing the Europe.
As was mentioned at above, the date of invasion (June 22, 1941) was set by Hitler on April 30; the same date it was decided to switch railroads into schedule of maximal defense transportation, starting from May 23. But even after this with clearly de-masking the whole plan of operation the redeployment of tank and motorized divisions was delayed, "to the last minute”. For instance, five tank divisions of “South” army group were loaded into echelons in the period of June 6 to 16 and arrived to unloading stations in South Poland (Lublin-Sandomierz-Rzeszow) just by June 14-20. Three divisions (13 td, 14 td and 11 td) moved directly to regions of concentration and deployment 25-40 km away from Soviet border just in last hours before invasion, while two others (16 td and 9 td) were still marching 100-150 km away from the border in the evening of June 21. (33, p. 37, 108 ) 
There’s nothing surprising in the fact that by Sunday morning of June 22, 1941, concentration of Soviet armies of the Second strategic echelon hasn’t been yet completed. Command of Red Army acted according to its normal schedule of deployment, which didn’t assume invasion of Germans. "Redeployment of forces was planned in such a way as to complete the concentration in regions, pointed out by operative plans, from June 1 till July 10, 1941". Just for this single phrase one should have awarded the authors of collective monograph “1941 – lessons and summaries” with Conspicuous Courage Medal already in 1992!
The earliest advancement was performed by formations of 16th Army and 5 MC, situated in Transbaikalia and Mongolia. On April 26, General Staff gave preliminary order and on May 22 began the loading of echelons with first units, which were to arrive to Berdichev-Proskurov-Shepetovka (Ukraine) in the period of June 17 till July 10, taking into account enormous distance and present schedule of railroad works of peacetime.
From May 13 to 22 General Staff issued orders with regard to commencement of advancement towards Western border of two more GHQ reserves armies. 22nd Army advanced to Velikiye Luki – Vitebsk region, with deadline to finish the concentration on July 1-3, 21st Army concentrated in Chernigov – Gomel – Konotop region by July 2.  On May 29 19th Army was ordered to be formed and deployed near Cherkassy – Belaya Tserkov by July 7. No earlier than June 13 it was decided to form one more, 20th Army, based on Orel and Moscow military formation, which had to be concentrated near Smolensk by July 3-5.
Let’s repeat it again, that all this transportation was planned to be performed provided that “railroads are to be maintained in peacetime regime" and with observance of unprecedented measures of strict confidentiality. In other words, on June 12, 1941, People's Commissar of Defense by Directive № 504206 gave the following instructions to Kiev SMD chief: “Apart from you, member of Military Council and Chief of District’s Staff, nobody should know about arrival of parts of 16th Army…Telephone and telegraph open talks with regard to arrival, unloading and disposition of forces, even without naming the units, is strictly forbidden…Conditional title is to be used for every kind of correspondence, including putting it on envelopes of “strictly confidential” documents.”  (6, p. 352 )
Among great variety of events with deadline “by July 1, 1941” you can’t miss another decision, approved on June 4, 1941 at the meeting of Politburo of Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union “to approve formation within Red Army one rifle division, staffed with Polish personnel, knowing Polish language”.
(48).  National formation within Red Army have been by that time eliminated for a long time already.  Moreover, decision of Politburo tells not just about people of Polish nationality, but about people, knowing Polish language (what would make a big difference, taking into account multinational Soviet Union, with big number of mixed marriages and assimilated national groups). The only similar case happened on November 11, 1939. On that day, 20 days before planned “liberation” of Finland, it was decided to form 106th rifle division, for which the personnel was collected exclusively out of people knowing Finnish or Karelian languages. (49, page 137 )
Furious subversives of V. Suvorov’s version spoilt countless amount of paper for their trashy essays, for all these “Anti-Suvorovs”, “Ledokol myths” etc, but couldn’t so far answer such an easy question: why should Stalin need division, speaking Polish language, by July 1, 1941? Can it be true, that to protect unbreakable frontiers of USSR one should urgently need Polish people?
The wave of full-scale regrouping of forces rolled from Far East through military districts of European part of USSR up to frontiers of Western districts. By mid-June it was extremely hard to hide from enemy’s intelligence such event as concentration of operative forces formation of First strategic echelon. In the period of June 12 till June 15 command of Western frontier districts received orders to advance divisions of district (front) reserve towards state's border. Directive of People's Commissar of Defense as of June 13, 1941, communicated to Kiev SMD, instructed:
“With the purpose of increasing district forces’ combat readiness by July 1 (underlined by me – M.S.) all internal divisions with corps departments, as well as with corps parts are to be moved closer to state’s border into new camps…All movements of forces are to be strictly confidential. Marching to perform along with tactic trainings, at night time. All mobile supplies of ammunition and fuels and lubricants are to be taken out along with the forces. Families to leave behind. Execution to communicate to couriers by July 1, 1941” (6, page 359 )
Order was accepted for execution immediately. Marshal Bagramyan (at the time – Chief of operative department, Deputy Chief Staff of Kiev SMD) tells about these events in his memoirs:
    “…On June 15 we received an order to start from June 17 advancement of all five rifle corps of the Second echelon towards border. We had already everything get prepared (underlined by me - M.S.) for this: already in the beginning of May we have performed substantial work, by order from Moscow, - drafted directives to corps, did reconnaissance of routes and districts of confinement. It was now just to give order to executors…Divisions were taking everything needed for combat actions. For secrecy purpose forces were to move at night time only. The plan was elaborated in details…In order Hitlerites wouldn’t notice our movements, districts of corps concentration were chosen not by the very border, but few daily marches away to East (45, page 75 )
Directive with similar content and with the same deadline for concentration – by July 1 – was delivered to Western SMD, as well. (6, page 423 ). By June 15 more than half of all divisions, making up the second echelon and reserve of Western military districts, were caused to move. On the eve of war, 32 divisions of Western districts secretly, by night marching through forests and swamps were going (creeping) towards to border. Colonel Novychkov who in the beginning of war was chief staff of 62nd rifle division of 5th Army of Kiev SMD, remembers: “Division’s parts advanced from camp in Kyvertsi (approximately 80 km from the border – M.S.) and by completing two night marching, approached line of defense by morning of June 19, though didn’t take the defensive position, just concentrated in forests (underlined by me – M.S.) not far from it.” (46)
On June 15 Chief commander of Baltic SMD, general-colonel F.I. Kuznetsov, issued an order № 0052, where he reminded his subordinates that “just today, ever more, we have to be in full combat readiness…This should be fully understood by everybody, since at any minute we have to be ready to carry out any kind of military task”. (50, p. 8). Notwithstanding the fact, that order № 0052 didn’t contain any specific operative tasks, it received “Top secret. Particular importance” classification was brought to notice of senior officers only (from commanders of divisions and higher), and was concluded with the following instruction: “With regard to this order no other written orders and instructions are to be given to anybody”. Concern about “secrecy purposes” led to such situation, when chief of politpropaganda department of Baltic SMD, comrade Ryabtchiy, in the evening of June 21, 1941, ordered that “departments of corps and division politpropaganda are not to give directives to units; tasks of political work to raise orally through personal representatives…” ( 46 )   
It’s very strange, very. Obviously, Soviet norms of confidentiality differed a lot from universal ones, but how come that it wasn’t be possible to put on paper such tasks as “be ready to protect peaceful work of Soviets” or “we don’t want any part of foreign land”? In this respect it’s useful to notice, that on the very first day of way, June 22, 1941, Germans captured in Shakiai (Lithuania) a storehouse with leaflets in German language, appealed to soldiers of Wehrmacht. (42, page 79 )
But the most amazing thing lies in different. Until now there are some writers, who state that Stalin tried with all his might to “delay Hitler's attack” on Soviet Union. But in order to better “delay” one shouldn’t hide divisions in the forests, crawl at nights on swamps, but instead invite on one sunny day in June to Kyvertsi correspondents of all central newspapers and order them to make picture of marching columns. And place on cover newspaper page under heading “Border is locked down!” And near it – an interview with tank commander, who arrived to Shepetovka with his comrades-in-arms from hot steppes of Mongolia. And let German analysts think – what should this mean… “When dealing with dangerous enemy, one should, probably, show him your readiness for repulse. Should we show Hitler our real strength, he would probably abstain from war with USSR at that time”, - writes in his memoirs army general S.P. Ivanov, highly experienced staff officer. (47). In the very same way one should have acted, as advised military professional of such high rank; if Stalin would think about “delaying”, instead of how to NOT SCARE AWAY the enemy during the last weeks and days before Europe’s invasion.
Last doubts with regard to offensive direction of the Big Plan vanish as soon as we chart position of divisions of First strategic echelon which was created during secret strategic deployment, done for months.
Thanks for farsighted “delimitation line of states' interests of USSR and Germany on the territory of former Poland”, mapped in September 1939 (this is exactly the official naming of "Western border” as specified in all books), this “border” had two deep (120-170 km) salient, pointed with its edge to West. Białystok’s salient in Western Belarus and Lvov salient in Western Ukraine. Two salients inevitably correspond to four “cavities”. From North to South these “cavities” by salient’s foundation were situated near Grodno, Brest, Vladimir-Volynsky, Chernovtsy. Should Red Army hold the line, then at “edges of salients” they would leave only minimum of cover forces, while main groupings would be lined up by the foundation, in the “cavities”. Such formation allows to safely avoid encirclement of forces on the territory of salients, decrease total length of defense front (length of triangle's base is always shorter of two other sides’ sum) and to create the biggest operative concentration in the most probable directions of enemy's attack.
In June 1941 everything was done exactly another way around. The main combat formations “gathered into point” at the edges of Białystok and Lvov salients. By foundations, near Grodno, Brest and Chernovtsy, were situated incomparably weaker forces.
Description of the whole formation would take a lot of time and space, that’s why let’s limit ourselves by considering stationing of the main combat group of Red Army – mechanized (tank) corps. Extreme haste and diversity of its formation start led to the fact that tanks, armored vehicles, cars and trucks in sight were distributed between mechcorps very unevenly. Structure of tank stock was diverse as well. The majority of corps lacks the newest tanks (T-34, KV), some (10 MC, 19 MC, 18 MC) were equipped with pretty worn out BT-2 / BT-5, made in 1932-1934 or even with light floating small tanks T-37 / T-38.
Against this background one could clearly notice “five strongmen”, five mechcorps, which were equipped with 700-1000 tanks, including more than 100 newest T-34 and KV tanks, hundreds of trucks (tractors), thousands of cars. These were (from North to South) 3 MC, 6 MC, 15 MC, 4 MC and 8 MC. Even among these, best of the best, one could spot 6th and 4th mechcorps. They were equipped, accordingly, with 452 and 414 newest tanks – more than all other mechcorps of Red Army together did (and “others” counted for 27). In 6th MC by the beginning of combat actions there were 1131 tanks (i.e. more than normally needed), 294 trucks (honorary “second place” among all mechcorps of Red Army); based on total number of automobiles and motorcycles (4779 and 1042, accordingly) it excelled any other mechcorp of Red Army. More than seriously looked 8th MC before commencement of war. Mechcorp had 171 units of newest T-34 and KV, 359 trucks and tractors, 3237 cars.
Where were all these “strongmen” then? 4 MC was deploying near Lvov. Near it, a bit to the South, there was an 8 MC; 15 MC was stationed a bit to the East off Lvov, near Zolotchev-Krements. Within these three mechcorps only there were 721 units of KV and T-34 tanks, what by spooky coincidence was the exact number of tanks of all types within the 1st Wehrmacht's Tank Group, opposing it. Without doing a single shoot, the combat grouping of Soviet mechcorps was already near the flank and home front of German forces, squeezed in the interfluve of Wisła and Bug. Two days before the commencement of war, all three divisions of 4 MC started movement towards the West, to the very “edge” of Lvov salient. In the morning of June 22, (at 5:40 am) command of 8 MC opened “red envelope” and according to Chief of 26th Army order № 002 as of May 17, 1941 the mechcorp moved to West and by the second half of the day arrived at bordering river San, to the North of Sambor. The “red envelope” with directive from staff of Kiev SMD № 0013 as of May 31, 1941 was opened by commander of 15 MC at 4:45 am, and after this corp’s divisions moved towards Radekhov (34 km from border Krystinopol, nowadays – Chervnonograd).
But probably the most demonstrative was the choice of stationing place of 6 MC, which was hidden in the depth of dense forests, near Białystok. One could only guess how mechcorp with its numerous units got to Białystok – this city has a line of railroad, going to it through ancient forests and bottomless swamps. Mechcorp could leave Białystok by itself only in one direction – using motorway to Warsaw, which laid 80 km from the “border”. There was no motorway from Białystok to the East, to Belarus, neither at that time, nor nowadays.
No less noteworthy is the place of stationing of 3rd MC (672 tanks, including 110 T-34 and KV, 308 trucks and tractors, 3897 cars). This corps was under command of 11th Army, deployed in the South Lithuania, at the junction of Northwest and West fronts. Border line near this junction looked like a long and narrow “tongue”, which stretched from Polish city of Suwałki deep into Soviet territory, near Grodno. Practically, on the territory of this “Suwałki salient” and to the North there were deployed two Tank Groups of Wehrmacht at the same time (4th and 3rd) within seven (!) tank divisions. Soviet command might have not known this, but the very shape of border by Grodno was filled with big misgivings. Notwithstanding this the 3 MC appeared to be much to the North of Grodno, even northward to Kaunas which was separated from "Suwałki salient" by full-flowing Niemen.
Strange decision to repulse of quite probable attack of enemy from Suwałki to Grodno, but still very clear and rational for attack on Tilsit (Sovetsk) and further to Baltic coast. And directly near Grodno there was a weak 11 MC (331 tanks, including only 27 T-34 and KV), with miserable number of automobiles and trucks. 14 MC was slightly better armed (518 light units of T-26, no middle or heavy range tanks); it faced the attack of the 2nd Tank Group of Guderian near the base of Białystok salient, in the region of Brest-Kobrin. Distribution of separated (Corps and GHqR) artillery regiments was similar: main forces – on “edge salient", pointed to enemy. Within the 3rd Army, covering Grodno direction, there were just two Corps artillery regiments (152 and 444), while within 10th Army (the edge of Białystok salient) – four corps (130, 156, 262, 315) and three artillery regiments of GHqR  (311, 124, 375). 
It sounds strange, but proving of the offensive character of Soviet operative plans and conditioned to this plans of forces groups formatting took place only after publishing famous book “Ledokol” by V. Suvorov. Before this Soviet historians and memoirists calmly and eagerly ascertained that “arrangement of positions and forces was influenced by offensive character of plan for strategic actions…plot for strategic deployment and formation of operative force groups increasingly reflected the offensive goals…” ( 3 ). Still, such confessions were always followed by reservation that “due to insufficient assessment of situation it was unjustifiably allowed…" V. Suvorov just suggested stopping thinking of Soviet generals as idiots, who didn’t understand elementary truth of strategy and operative art, and pointed to intellectual and, most important, moral advantages of Soviet historians. Of course, “historians” didn’t forgive him this. It’s strange that even those Soviet generals, who were rehabilitated by V. Suvorov, didn’t intercede for him…
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PaulC
Posted: May 11, 2012 09:28 pm
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QUOTE (Florin @ May 11, 2012 06:19 pm)
In the opening post of this topic and according to many discussions here, Soviet Union planned her invasion in 1941.
I think more common is the belief that they planned their invasion of German occupied land in 1943. Some historians are mentioning this as well. The reason is simple: after the lessons learned during the Winter War with Finland, Stalin and his clique decided that the Red Army is not ready.
My grandfather mentioned that Russians officers taken prisoners told them about the planned Soviet invasion to occur in 1943. This sounded so strange during the Communist era, when all I could read was Nazi Germany = horrible aggressor, Soviet Union = peaceful innocent victim.

If Stalin had planned the invasion in 1943, the Russian officers that your grandfather took prisoner wouldn't be hiding in the woods right near the border in June 1941.

People often forget that Romania was a key player on the eastern front. If the soviets really prepared an aggression in 1941, surely the Romanian intelligence services ( SSI ) must have reported this.

Let's see what the SSI has to say about the "peaceful" and "totally unprepared soviets " ( interesting that in 1941 nobody perceived them as unprepared, neither did the Red Army try everything to avoid conflicts, on the contrary )

I scanned some pages from "Glorie si tragedii - Momente din istoria Serviciilor de Informatii si contrainformatii romane de pe frontul de Est 1941-1944" de Cristian Troncota. The question is how do I upload it ?



This post has been edited by PaulC on May 11, 2012 09:33 pm
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Posted: May 11, 2012 11:10 pm
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This is getting ridiculous. If Stalin was not to attack in 1941, then the Soviets would have had only a few picket posts at the border with Germany and Romania?
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