What's next?, next war Romanians could be part of

There were some interesting comentaries about what will be next, about how some new weapons Russians prepare could influence the future, the balance of forces in the world, or in our problematic region (whith many frozen conflicts in Black Sea region), and otherwise.
How Russia will strike back? How China will react? And what will be our role on the new "Great Chaseboard" (apud Zbignew Brezinski).
Republic of Moldova will influence our position at the NATO frontier? The new American bases, and the missile shield?
Many questions, few answers until now.
George Friedman, foundatory member of Stratfor, published a book, "Urmatorii 100 de ani", avaible in Romanian, too.

http://www.sfin.ro/articol_17783/urmatorii...secolul_21.html

This is a very serious book, not a kind of Nostradamus predictions. Friedman expose here his strategic theories, and came with examples, and tried to do it on scientific bases, about economy, democraphy, military developments, aliances and many more.
He said that Russians will fall from the status of important power, and many other will raise in Eastern Europe, like Poland, Turkey, and Romania and Hungary, allied togeter.
He mentioned many possible wars, one of them implies Romania, and is dated about the year 2040. A very fascinating lecture.

Today, Ukraine is running into presidential elections. Maybe we find more about it's future, and what directions it will take.
Few days ago, on Typhon topic, we discused about a novel about a future war between Romania and Ukraine. I hope it will remained just a novel, but I'm very interested in Ukraine's future.

ukraine has some heavy debts towards romania and poland


Romania
;
the suthern Basarabia
northern Bucovina
northern Maramures
snakes island


Poland

the Lvov region

Many strategiests and analists said that in next 10 years, Ukraine will blow up in pieces. (2,3 or 4 large ones). It can be a peaceful movement, or a violent one (hope will be peaceful, like Cekhoslovakia, not violent, like Yugoslavia).
There are too many diferences and aspirations between parts of population, like western parts and eastern ones.

yes, but even if they will break up, the russians will imediately send in their undecover agents which will stear the events in the desired direction by Moscow in these newly born ministates and so we and the polls will not eb able to take back our old teritories.

they will use the mass media to spread ideas similar to the ones in Moldova, liek the existance of a separate ethnic group called moldavians, they will continue to attack romania and the EU in general, like saying Romania is a gypsy state, why would you want to unite with those gypsies, Romania is an imperialistic state, they will steal your jobs etc, this kind of bullshit

Of course, all of these maneuvres will be put in place, but in western part, inhabitans from here wanted to be part of UE and NATO. And Northern Bukovina is the eastern frontier of this part of Ukraine.

Interesting new topic, contras,
First, as each point of view I think that should be based on reading, I must admit ignorance since I didn't read the book in question... but even so I think that the potential danger to our country interests still coming from the east! Russia has the political, economic, military, technological and human potential to stay a big power abel to threaten our vital interests. So, first look at what happens in Ukraine... and I turn shortly on the fiction book "Cand Armele Vorbesc...". E

Even if I found many nonsense in describing the military operations in terms of tactical, operational and strategic, not to speak about other political issues, the idea of using Ukraine as an instrument in striking our interests is possible even probable, and should make us very careful! Even if right now such a scenario does not seem possible...

The book George Friedman wrote comes with studies, forecasts about demographic issues, economic ones, etc, and said that Russia's power will diminish in a few years, but she don't really understand that. His eastern large provinces, practically unpopulated, are so close at hand by overpopulated China. And Russia's demographic decline, over one hundred people in Russian federation, the musulman people in southern regions with separative tentatives, a nightmare for every Russian leader.
But how Russia will colapse? I'm sure she will made many attempts to delay the inevitable, and it will be done with strong hand.
Russia proved in 2008 that is ready to use military force, but this demonstration show is weakening, too. Loses to high, for such a conflict. Loses in Chechenia, another matter.

About "Cand armele vorbesc" scenario, IMO, Ukraina had no matter to love us very much, because many things. Haga decision last year they treated like a defeat, Iulia Timoshenko said in electoral campaign that she will attack in justice Haga decision.
Paralell with Argentina's regime Galtieri, who attacked Malvina's (Fauklands) it is well done, but until now, Ukraine is still a democracy (not a perfect one, for sure), but is not a dictatorship. Even so, I'm quite sure that it will act against us every time she can, but when is backed by Russia, even more.

2040 is indeed a year far enough for anything to happen,but given the current "dynasty" of post-communist politicians and the ones coming from behind, any war involving Romania would likely see a repeat of the performances in both World Wars : an army that is reasonably large,but poorly equipped and led with logistics crippled by corruption.

We have all the pieces in place for a proper small country defence : be too tough to crack to be really worth it. Save one : decent political leadership.

With buffoons like the ones leading the country now, we should be VERY glad there are no conflicts on the horizon whatsoever. Wouldn't give my life for these fart-bags if threatened by a SRI operative with a machinegun,Soviet-style.

Very interesting perspective on the future of Russia,
and somewhat positive for us - the possibility of reunification with Bessarabia (is a strong desire of mine, I confess!). It's true that population decline leads to an uncertain future as a great power for Russia and only a pronounced economic and technologic development could maintain her as a world power... even though many already consider Russia only a regional power like China or India for example (Although both countries are rapidly moving towards world power states).
Turkey is making quick steps to become a significant regional power, economic development, technological progress (including military), population growth, the ambitious foreign policy in all directions (from Georgia, Azerbaidjan and Turkmenistan to Palestina, Iraq and North Africa). I recently read in the magazine Lumea that many political experts see the Turkish role as one of much increasing significance for both its neighboring countries and some heated parts of the world. Not to forget the eyes targeted toward the Balkans where Albania, Kosovo and Bosnia-Hercegovina are important partners...

True, Andreas, in near future, we will faced with the posibility of our reunification with Bassarabia. But what about Transnistria, how we could deal with it? There is the soft and the hard posibility.
It is the choice of us, when the time will come!

the EU would have to agree first. and it was hard enough to have the population convinced that Romania and Bulgaria should join. whoever would try to implement that union will be hard pressed to convince the rest of the union why they should pay for a strip of land, poorer than albania.

True, dead-cat, but sooner or later, EU will extend again. Therer are some countries who waited, ex-Yugoslavia, (Western Balkans), and others.
Because it is cheaper for EU to help these countries to became rich, their citizens to have rights and some good economic status, in place of protect themself against illegal imigrants and other problems.
The time for Moldova will came. The main problem is with Transnstria's status. This frozen conflict cant persist, if Moldova want's to have a chance to join EU.
This state in state can be easilly overthrown. It is just a problem of will. If Ukraine put a blockade at his borders, Moldova the same, in few days the leaders will leave to Moscow. Because the regime can't exist if the smmugling traffic is stoped.
And the traffic route is on Ukrainean territory, with the complicity of Ukrainean leaders. It is another level to blackmail Moldova and Romania.