Russian-Romanian conflict, in Moldova/Transdniester

http://www.nineoclock.ro/wikileaks-basescu...anian-conflict/

So what? The situation is 20 years old and might change only after Smirnov's - let's say... - "demise", one way or the other! Trans-Dnestra is a precious Russian pawn in a game involving also Ukraine, Romania, maybe even NATO...
The Wikileaks are what they are - LEAKS! (Romanian also "scursuri")
Later Edit: here's a good one: "I just wanted to test their position"...
Blah-blah-blah

This post has been edited by MMM on September 22, 2011 01:47 pm

Don't worry about a conflict. In case of invasion Romania will send tanks, hellicopters, airplanes, and troops.
But after they call to the scrap yards in Constanta to see if they melted everything.

Also you guys forget that we have some secret weapons left:

1. The 12 Chicken Division(easelly can be fitted with grenades to explode near russian tank)
2. 23 Dive Bombing Stork division stationed everywhere in Baragan(they also can be fitted with something explosive)
3. Some division of infantry....but Russian have to pospone the attack untill the romanian infantry returns form Afganistan, Irak...and other places where we lose money dailly.

And our super secret weapon.....

-a special division formed of scrap iron collectors. I mean a divission formed in a hurry of people with trolleys and horse carriage. The tactics is simple...we station them near russian lines....and in one night they'll do the job.

Lulz, man! Good one! On the same level, I've got one more secret weapon: the famous three-legged chicken from Cernavodă - so secret that nobody saw it, yet so fast that nobody caught it...
On topic, now, it's really hard to believe in a "hot" conflict in that area, conflict in which the once-mighty ex-Red Army will intervene! After all, there are a couple of differences, military and geographically: we are NATO-member and they don't have the direct border required in order to fetch troops, ammo, vodka etc...
Come, now, I think this entire story is just some sort of bubble of some sort! But then, again, this is just IMHO ("părerea mea")...

pana la urna...hac....noi cu cine luptam?

sorry for romanian language!

By August 27, 2008 Romania was already in NATO.
I am considering this matter in a cynical and cold way - which hurts, but may be closer to reality. In case Russia would make a bold move in regard to Transnistria or even toward the Republic of Moldavia, the Romanian leadership will look toward NATO for blessing and support. NATO not only will back away, with the argument that Romania was not directly attacked and the Romanian border was not trespassed, but will pressure Romania to don't do anything that could force NATO into action.

I am assuming that in Moskow the decision makers are cool headed practical guys.
It is not in their interest to do anything stupid in Transnistria. The present status quo works just fine. To save their face and their meaning of prestige, they could be forced into action if the status quo of Transnistria is changed in a way they don't like.

Everyone here and on TV (the famous "analysts" there) seems to think in terms of a symmetric conflict in which Romania sends its tanks, fighters, and infrantry units in a head-on crash against the Russian forces.

What happened to asymmetric involvement? In my view this is the kind of military involvement the President had in mind.

Probably you read in the past this:
http://forum.moldweb.eu/topic/6119-razboi-...-in-cateva-ore/
Maybe this scenario was in mind of our president (or military leadership) when they ask US about this issue... Can't say for sure but our chances to help Moldova than or today (if something like that happen) are low...

But the obvious question is "why is Transdnestra of any importance to anyone?"

Who gives a hoot about some Ruritanian backwater?

Radu

Well, it's an European (or almost) Ruritania, unlike other Cold War places of conflict, such as Korea or Vietnam or Africa etc...

The question still stands. What is there to gain for anyone from this?
Why would Romania want to send its young sons to die for it?
Radu

Romania's young sons are already sent in Afghanistan on a wild goose chase. Sending them to help Moldova if hypothetically attacked by a foreign power or its proxies would make much more sense than sending them to die in Tralalabad.

Romania's young sons are already sent in Afghanistan on a wild goose chase. Sending them to help Moldova if hypothetically attacked by a foreign power or its proxies would make much more sense than sending them to die in Tralalabad.

"Whataboutism" still does not answer the question.
Why should Romania care about Transdnestra? So far no one seems to have a clue.
Radu

I think we should reasonably care about Republic of Moldova. Transnistria can be considered a problem to Romania if it will become a very big problem for the Republic of Moldova.
But it is a long road before going into military action. There are many ways to solve a problem. For example, if Transnistria would block some roads to cut some commercial routes, Romania and Ukraine could offer alternative roads, highways and harbors for those commercial routes.

By the way, Ukraine used to not be pleased at all with Transnistria. The problem is that after the last elections they drifted closer to Russia. Ukraine is a very important factor there, for better or for worse.

This post has been edited by Florin on September 23, 2011 02:54 pm

Transnistria was always (since 1991) the key to control Moldova from Moskow! The breakaway region include 700,000 people or about 16% of the population, comprising one sixth of the Republic of Moldova. Urbanization in Transnistria is about 65%, while in Moldova as a whole, this index remains at 47%. This region of Moldavia in the late eighties gave one third of industrial production and about 90% of electricity supply. The leadership of Moldova couldn't gave Transnistria away and so got cought like a fly... in Russian hands...
I quoted from a study made around 2000 about Transnistria in "Observatorul militar".