What's next?, next war Romanians could be part of

Russia's aim was to depose Saakhashvili? Where the heck do you get that from? Fox News?

Russia merely capitalized on Saakhashvili's stupidity to settle the Ossetian and Abkhazian conflicts,frozen since the '90s,in its favor. And it did.

I highly doubt it was the mighty Georgian army that intimidated the Russians away from Tibilisi. More like Russia having absolutely no interest in being dragged in (another) occupation, especially with the US hiccuping in Irak and Afghanistan.

This post has been edited by IAR80 on February 28, 2010 07:06 pm

The answer you will find there:

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/11/14/bush-putin-sarkozy/

Quote from the linked TimesOnline article :

"Mr Sarkozy’s team leaked their exchange to bolster their claim that the French President’s intervention saved Georgia — or at least its leader — from further torment. They want to counter charges that he ceded too much in Europe’s name by accepting the Russian annexation of the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. "

Emphases mine.

So basically this story is a playing card in their game of proving "the EU has saved the day", that EU,France can "play tough" too.

Am I supposed to take the word of the very people that benefit from the claim?

This article is pure bull droppings,nothing more than a publicity stunt meant to make Sarkozy look strong.

Again,it's absolutely naive to believe that Putin actually meant the whole "hanging by the balls" business. We aren't in the Middle Ages anymore.

This post has been edited by IAR80 on February 28, 2010 07:24 pm

And Sweden and Portugal and Ireland...

What Russia lost?

Credibility of their army.
In 5 days war, against a weak enemy, they lost 4 warplanes (6 from other sources). All the world could see the unprofesionalism of Russian troops, who herded one tank into each other APC, crowded in thin space, where even a blind man with an RPG could bring disaster. Not speaking about an artilery voley, or an helicopter. Fortunatelly for them, Georgians were not in that shape. However, their Special Forces ambushed some columns and in battle died a major and an colonel was severy wounded.

For all military analists, Russian move was preempted.
Two tank divisions were in Southern Ossetia the second day the war begin, and it was not possible if they do not waited on the other part of Roki Tunnel. Because you need about 3 weeks to carry one tank company over the Caucasus. But the 2 divisions were already there.
Russian fleet was near Georgian ports the same day. How could them be ready for war, armed and crowded with Marines ready to deploy in Poti. Only for voyage from Sevastopol to Poti it needed over 24 hours.

The question is why Georgians don't blast the Roki Tunnel. If this tunnel was destroyed, Russian army couldn't enter Southern Ossetia. The answer of Georgians was that the tunnel was full of Ossetian civil refugees, and that is the reason they didn't blew up.

It is peiorative speaking.
Saddam Hussein was hanged too, not by the balls.

Well, the lack of Russian armed forces credibility won't bring those territories back to Georgia, will they?

Dogs bark,caravans pass by...

Also,I have absolutely no illusions about the Russian intentions. Tensions had been rising since the beginning of 2008 and the Russians had plenty of time to prepare, of course there were forces there already. You can't call foul on Putin for preparing to call Saakhashvili's bluff.

Of course, but if the situation remains the same like the days before 8 August 2008, there will be not any change, too. Shaakashvili tried and failed. But he tried.
The biggest mistake made by him is that he don't understand some facts.

Georgian army was trained by Americans at Russia's claims, that Chechens passed the Pankisi Gorge free, to fight in Chechenia. To comfort the Russians, needed to be allies in Afghanistan, Americans trained Georgian army in counterterrorism actions and to bloke the Pankisi Gorge. That claim was resolved, Chechens still don't traveled in large numbers from Georgia to Chechenia.

Now, after the 2008 war, Americans will train Georgian army how to fight in this kind of war Russia imposed them. Next time, if will be next time, will be more difficult to Russian army.

I'd say leading your country in a suicidal charge against a much more powerful neighbour is not a "big mistake", it's grounds for being tried for treason.

Saakhashvili gambled away the lives of soldiers and lost, and he did so for his personal ambition. There was no urgency in the whole Abkhaz/Ossetian conflict, neither was there a clear Georgian claim on those lands. Abkhazians and Ossetians are not some Georgian off-shoots,they have a national identity and thus a right to self-determination. These people resisted being part of Georgia before.

This post has been edited by IAR80 on February 28, 2010 08:10 pm

It is true that Georgia wasnt well prepared for this war, and go more on bluffing, maybe thinking that Russia will not intervene in full force. But georgians didnt prepared for worse case scenario, as its normal, nor studied valuable lessons as chechens vs russians in first chechen war or Hezbollah vs. Israel (a more technologized and even better prepared army then russian one) in southern Lebanon. They didnt prepared the teritory for defense (mine fields, barrages etc.) nor had troops in reserve (they keep the best troops in Tbilisi to defend the city in case of russian invasion, which never happened, and send mostly conscripts and volunteers to fight with russian army in north of Georgia, underequiped and with less training. I really dont understand what was in mind of georgian president, and what their army commanders thinked and done for a more realistic preparation of that war. If they decided to start it. Looks quite weird how they planned the things.

Russians themselves didnt do a magnificent campagne. They lost several jets, and the cooperation and comunication betwen troops was considered very bad. If a more serious and better prepared and equiped army face the russian then, the results might by a little diferent.

You're wrong, IAR-80.
You must look deeply at Georgian history, especially after 1991.
In 1992, in Southern Ossetian war, Georgian lost 3000 people, and over 40000 were refugees, just in that year. Next years, the number of Georgian refugees increase, and that is the reason that this part can be claimed that ossetinan land.
In 1993, in Abkazian war, 30000 (thirty thousands) Georgians were killed, and over 300000 (three hundred thousands) were refugees. Few years later, wave after wave, another 100000 (one hundred thousand) Georgian refugees were rejected from Abkazia. That is the way which Abkhazians, who numbered 91000 (ninety one thousands) people at 1991 census, become majority. And both wars were waged with direct participatinon of Russians troops, the same like Transnistria. In Abkhazian war, Georgians shot down 2 Russians SU-25, and presented them to international media. Who cares?
There were many atrocities, ethnic cleansing, but the term was made public later, in Yugoslavian wars.

And the solution would be? To have the Georgians re-occupy the areas and forcibly re-settle Georgians? Because rest assured that the Georgians are no longer welcome in either Abkhazia or Ossetia.

The harm has been done, and another bad deed will make it worse.

Giving the Georgians a blank check to "repay" the ethnic atrocities in order to "rebalance" the demographics will not end the conflict.

What's been done is done, Abkhazia and Ossetia will never willingly return to Georgia because the people there don't want it.

This post has been edited by IAR80 on February 28, 2010 09:37 pm

This is the worst point of wiew. If someone kills and eject people, he could be the owner of the land.
In our history, were many cases about it. In Bassarabia, Bukovina, Transylvania, and many other parts.
But Russians were the masters of it. Until 1792, they were never owned the teritory on left bank of Dniestr. After that date, they claimed Bassarabia was part of Russian land. That it looks history for many people.

But what do you propose? To let this part of Georgia to Ossetians, Abkhazians or Russians, just because they killed or ejected all the inhabitans?
If you agree, you must agree that all the parts of Palestinian teritorries must be under Israelian rule, including the latest occupied by Israelian colonies. And you must shut up when the Israeli tanks come to crush Paslestinian resistance.

Name the nation that never did that!
Romania has its own history of it.
In fact, the entire written history of mankind revolves around conquest, displacement and assimilation. This is not new and not going to end soon.
The only solution is to get rid of borders and and possessions Imagine!
Radu

Contras,things are more complex than that. The Abkhaz people have inhabited the are since,well, the beginning, same for Ossetians. That's their homeland.

Ethnic cleansing is terrible,but "reversing" it by forced settlement the way Israelis for example try to set the clock back 2,000 years through expanding their settlements,that's not a solution.

Do you think that the Ossetians would welcome the Georgians back if they somehow managed to militarily gain it back and began to re-settle Georgians in Ossetia?

One cannot turn back the clock,that's all I'm saying. The entire point is valid simply because the Abkhazians/Ossetians have inhabited their lands since times immemorial, that's their land.

Georgia would do well to learn from Israelis which will never find peace as long as they try to ethnically/demographically "rub out" the Palestianians.

It's time for Georgia to move on.

Take Hungary, they never slipped back into revanchism and today their country is one that can truly be called "European". The worst thing for Hungary would be to try to go to war with its neighbours in search of some long-lost "Greater Hungary".

Same for "Greater Romania".

This post has been edited by IAR80 on March 01, 2010 06:26 pm