What's next?, next war Romanians could be part of

Romania can't fight Russia openly and certainly not in areas like Bugeac like some wrote. But if Russia invades Moldova with its own forces or with the forces of its Transnistrian proxies then Romania can do it. It's just a question of political decision, not of material (im)possibility. Russia is not "unfightable".

Which brings us in a neat circle back to the most important question: "how can Romania fight Russia?"

It is easy to say "watch me while I stop this oncoming train with my fist" and you may even find some to believe you. But saying it and doing it are two different things. This is yet another case of "curat pusca si vorbesc prostii".

Radu

The answer is irregular warfare.

Russia already used "irregular warfare" in Crimea. Why would Russia not use "irregular warfare" to their advantage again?
I doubt that there is a single tactic, weapon or system that Romania has in more abundance than Russia.
Radu

Conflict is rarely a contest between two equal sides. The outcome will probably be favorable for the stronger side (sometimes it isn't) but that doesn't mean the weaker side can't fight.

This is not a case of "can't fight" but a case of "can't win".
Radu

I recommended a movie in this topic on April 13:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65sVXVRcLLI

It is not a documentary. It raises some reflections... If the Romanian government is not willing to order some additional ground and aerial equipment, what happened to Georgia it may happen to us - and this brings again the word "NATO" and how far is willing to go.
America, the way I see it from inside, is so divided in this moment with internal bitter matters, that people will close ranks and join together only if they will feel themselves really threatened - and Poland or Romania in trouble will not trigger this feeling.

This post has been edited by Florin on April 15, 2014 03:12 am

This is not a case of "can't fight" but a case of "can't win".
Radu

Hoping to don't sound stupid:
What about a stalemate? The typical "draw" in chess.
The bad thing with stalemates in wars is that usually the borders and the political status remain as before.
If so, why to pass through all that pain, suffering and death ?

The best thing Romania can do right now is stay out of any kind of trouble with Russia altogether. All this talk of Romania defeating Russia is just bonkers.
Radu

Romania can help Moldova resist a Russian/Transnistrian invasion by helping it resort to irregular warfare. We can't say who would win since that depends on how things progress. At any rate, Russia would pay a palpable cost for its aggression.

In one word: Ponta.

The lack of vision regarding the allocation of funds for the military is not limited to the current PM, but goes back at least 10 years. None of the politicians that changed places in power did anything of substance regarding this subject.

It is not about defeating Russia, but about making the business case for a Russian invasion not sustainable or at least with little odds of breaking even.

It is not about defeating Russia, but about making the business case for a Russian invasion not sustainable or at least with little odds of breaking even.

That implies Putin thinks like a businessman; something not apparent to me. He seems to think more like an 80's KGB guy.

Perhaps the real Ru businesspeople have enough leverage to bring him to reality. Also not apparent? (thinking here of Khodorkovsky, Berezovsky, e.g.)

Romania can help Moldova resist a Russian/Transnistrian invasion by helping it resort to irregular warfare. We can't say who would win since that depends on how things progress. At any rate, Russia would pay a palpable cost for its aggression.

You keep saying this. I am not questioning Romania's reasons. I am wondering HOW can Romania fight Russia? You keep making these vague but (seemingly) sage statements as if Romania has some ultraweapon (whatever you think this magical "irregular warfare" is) kept in utmost secret but in such immense abundance that it can outperform anything Russia has.
I asked before: Since Russia already used "irregular warfare" with great success in Crimea, what makes you think they will suddenly turn into bumbling idiots when faced with our "mioritic" irregular warfare?
Radu

Romania could fight if the political decision to do so is taken, that's what I said.

You keep going back and forth from "we can't fight" to "but we can't win". You made clear your opinion that Romania shouldn't do anything, I have no problems with that opinion. I am just countering your claim that we couldn't do anything and the mentality that something should be done only if victory is somehow guranteed from the start.

Irregular warfare is not magical, it's what weaker countries use when faced with stronger opponents. I doubt you didn't know this. Irregular warfare is not a "recipe for victory", it's something that can be done and that could give weaker sides a chance to stay in the fight and give some serious headaches to a conventionally superior enemy. There are plenty of examples from the 20th Century. Even earlier than that.

Nobody can give you a magical recipe for victory that you seem to request, nobody can guarantee a victory. Especially since the discussion is purely theoretical, we don't know what Russia is going to do about Moldova, what form her move on Moldova would take, if it even takes place and so on.