Russian-Romanian conflict, in Moldova/Transdniester

Radu, after reading all posts, I found none that could be interpreted as somebody desire to have a war with Russia. Which message you understood being in this direction? I think that anyone who would like something like this would be sure crazy. On the other hand in case of an transnistrian&russian attack like the one I quoted above (mentioned by a forum of R. Moldova) I don't think we (as a country) could have a different variant than that of an involvement (at least at the level of 1992 transnistrian war) in case of a moldovan request. We like it or not it is our duty!

And I already said that if you want to send some support for Moldova, it is OK with me.
BUT, the wikileaks mention that Basescu is concerned about a "conflict with Russia", which is a totally different thing. I am glad you agree that "conflict with Russia" is crazy.
Radu

Ok Radu I understand your point of view! I thought you mean one of those who have posted on this topic as "partisans" of a war with Russia (which I don't believe exist, at least so I understood so far!). I misunderstood you, I was convinced from your posts that you oppose to any Romanian involvement in case of a transnistrian&russian attack.

Imperialist, you are the only one who keeps talking about conflict and providing Moldova with weapons and specialists. But everyone else is talking about war. I on the other hand, I keep asking "is it worth it?", so actually that implies that I do not particularly want a "war with Russia" - I am merely trying to figure out why others want war by asking why. Surely, you can make a distinction between a question and a statement...

I told you before (on September 26) that I have no problem with the kind of "support" you are proposing. So, you have a supporter in me. Why do you keep challenging me? I am just addressing those people who want bloody war. How about you address those people who demand war too?

But even if "is a conflict with Russia over Moldova/Transdnestra worth it?" is the wrong question as you say, why don't you answer anyway?
Please do not be shy with the details and explain what has Romania got to win in such a conflict? And what are the chances, in your expert opinion, that Romania will emerge the victor in the case of a conflict with Russia?

Radu

Sorry but on September 26 you said you agree with sending Moldova "cheats by email" and to parachute "chibitzi". I didn't take that seriously as endorsement of the idea to give them aid, on the contrary.

I don't know who else was talking about war, but I know you were talking about it (too). Remember the planes, tanks, the bombing of Bucharest?

Imperialist, yes, I asked questions about war, tanks and planes. Yes, I asked questions about sending troops. Yes I asked questions about a conflict with Russia. Yes I asked whether such a thing is worth it. These are questions. Not statements. See the difference? Questions are asked when one is unsure and wants answers. I need some answers. If you cannot give these answers just say so, do not attack me for asking them.

In the Wikileaks document, Basescu is talking about "conflict with Russia". He seems to think that Russia may use Transdnestra to stage an attack on Moldova. In his opinion that would be the equivalent of a "Gulf of Tonkin incident" which will the draw Romania in to help Moldova and then lead to a "conflict with Russia". THAT is his "concern".
From that I understand that he is not worried about Moldova. He is worried about Russia. Furthermore, even the title of this thread is "conflict with Russia". I have no doubt that many Romanians want to help Moldova by any means, and let me make it clear to everyone that I have no problem with "help for Moldova". BUT, that is not the subject of this thread and was never the subject of the leaks. The issue is "conflict with Russia". And now, Imperialist, I ask you directly: is conflict with Russia worth it? Stop obfuscating and lecturing me. Give a straight answer for once! I am tired of your prevarication. How many times did I ask you these questions? What does "conflict with Rusia" mean to you and what can Romania do to its advantage in the case of a "conflict with Russia?".

Radu

PS Just in case you did not understand it yet, I think that "conflict with Russia" is crazy.

I answered your question several times, last time on September 26:

And yes, it would be worth helping out Moldova if she is attacked by Transdniester/Russia.

And I keep telling you that "Moldova/Transdnestra" is nothing but a "Straw Man".

I am asking you whether "conflict with Russia" is worth it. If you want to discuss "helping Moldova" please open a separate thread. This thread is about "conflict with Russia".

You either did not read the Wikileaks telegram or you are doing your usual "abureala" stuff. In the Wikileaks telegram, Basescu is concerned about what Russia will do AFTER Romania helps Moldova. So, let us make it understood that we agree that Romania wants to help Moldova. FINE! OK! HARASHO! But what if Russia is not pleased with Romania's help/interference and a "conflict with Russia" ensues? What then? Is that worth it?

Radu

To discuss this topic more clear because an answer to the question if for the sake of Moldova (Bassarabia) deserve to go to war with Russia, I think of a scenario of an alleged war. If Russia wanted to draw us into a conflict one scenario could be the one used in Chisinau protests (started on 6 April 2009 as a series of demonstrations contesting parliamentary elections held in Moldova on 5 April). If you remember the accusations of the former communist president Vladimir Voronin that Romania would be behind the violent protests in Chisinau, than you can have a picture of how easy would Russia find a pretext for a war. The question is if Russia wanted to draw us (Romania) into a war or not. I believe the answer is no! But this scenario or other may raise another question than whether or not worth a war with Russia : How could we resist the temptation to help Moldova in case of a russian/transnistrian aggression if NATO would ask us to abstain?

I cannot see a single reason why Russia would want to single out Romania for an attack. There are other much wealthier and resource-rich places to their East, Weat, North, and South. So, the idea that Russia would cunningly stage a fake Transdnestran attack on Moldova with the single intention to draw Romania in is preposterous. Stupid! Stupid! Stupid!

As for how would Romania resist the temptation to help Moldova? I thought that Imperialist already ran that scenario: Romania will send help in the form of "soft" support (logistics and intelligence, no troops, no Romanian-operated heavy hardware) and Moldova will emerge victorious. So, there is nothing to worry about. BUT, if we already fear that Transdnestra may do such a thing with Russian help in order to draw Romania into a ruinous conflict with Russia, knowing that this may be a ruse, maybe Romania should do nothing other than use all diplomatic instruments at its disposal first, such as using the Security Council of the United Nations, economic sanctions, etc. Even if it is not violent, it is still "help for Moldova".

Radu

And I keep telling you that "Moldova/Transdnestra" is nothing but a "Straw Man".

I am asking you whether "conflict with Russia" is worth it. If you want to discuss "helping Moldova" please open a separate thread. This thread is about "conflict with Russia".

You either did not read the Wikileaks telegram or you are doing your usual "abureala" stuff. In the Wikileaks telegram, Basescu is concerned about what Russia will do AFTER Romania helps Moldova. So, let us make it understood that we agree that Romania wants to help Moldova. FINE! OK! HARASHO! But what if Russia is not pleased with Romania's help/interference and a "conflict with Russia" ensues? What then? Is that worth it?

Radu

Come on man, why are we so lost in translation? When I say it would be worth helping Moldova if she is attacked by Transdniester and/or Russia, who would Romania help it against? Obviously Transdniester and/or Russia. So obviously the answer to your question is yes.

The difference is that I think we would do it for Moldova's sake, not because we care about Transdniester. My view is that Moldova should give up Transdniester altogether because Russia could use it to derail Moldova from its path towards the EU and NATO. But if Russia does that "ruse" then we should help Moldova, especially if the Transdniestrian separatists are as well armed and trained (compared to Moldovan forces) as rumored to be, no question about it.

And I keep telling you that "Moldova/Transdnestra" is nothing but a "Straw Man".

I am asking you whether "conflict with Russia" is worth it. If you want to discuss "helping Moldova" please open a separate thread. This thread is about "conflict with Russia".

You either did not read the Wikileaks telegram or you are doing your usual "abureala" stuff. In the Wikileaks telegram, Basescu is concerned about what Russia will do AFTER Romania helps Moldova. So, let us make it understood that we agree that Romania wants to help Moldova. FINE! OK! HARASHO! But what if Russia is not pleased with Romania's help/interference and a "conflict with Russia" ensues? What then? Is that worth it?

Radu

Come on man, why are we so lost in translation? When I say it would be worth helping Moldova if she is attacked by Transdniester and/or Russia, who would Romania help it against? Obviously Transdniester and/or Russia. So obviously the answer to your question is yes.

The difference is that I think we would do it for Moldova's sake, not because we care about Transdniester. My view is that Moldova should give up Transdniester altogether because Russia could use it to derail Moldova from its path towards the EU and NATO. But if Russia does that "ruse" then we should help Moldova, especially if the Transdniestrian separatists are as well armed and trained (compared to Moldovan forces) as rumored to be, no question about it.

OK, so, you think that a "conflict with Russia because of Moldova" is worthwhile. I can tell you that I figured that out a long time ago. As I said, I got it. That is the "straw man". It may work for the unitiated. But I had many such "discussions" with you and I am aware when you are using "straw men", "red herrings", "blind alleys", and so on. Note that you still did not answer the question!
Let me spell it out for you: What if Transdnstra/Russia takes its conflict with Romania beyond Moldova? What if Transdnestra/Russia defeats Moldova and its Romanian "support"? What if Transdnestra/ Russia enters Romania? What if Russia does what they did in Georgia and start shelling Romanian positions within Romania? Is that worth it? Simple question.

Please do not tell me that Romania is protected by NATO. NATO is the Gruffalo. And the mouse can use the Gruffalo only for a while.

Radu

And I keep telling you that "Moldova/Transdnestra" is nothing but a "Straw Man".

I am asking you whether "conflict with Russia" is worth it. If you want to discuss "helping Moldova" please open a separate thread. This thread is about "conflict with Russia".

You either did not read the Wikileaks telegram or you are doing your usual "abureala" stuff. In the Wikileaks telegram, Basescu is concerned about what Russia will do AFTER Romania helps Moldova. So, let us make it understood that we agree that Romania wants to help Moldova. FINE! OK! HARASHO! But what if Russia is not pleased with Romania's help/interference and a "conflict with Russia" ensues? What then? Is that worth it?

Radu

Come on man, why are we so lost in translation? When I say it would be worth helping Moldova if she is attacked by Transdniester and/or Russia, who would Romania help it against? Obviously Transdniester and/or Russia. So obviously the answer to your question is yes.

The difference is that I think we would do it for Moldova's sake, not because we care about Transdniester. My view is that Moldova should give up Transdniester altogether because Russia could use it to derail Moldova from its path towards the EU and NATO. But if Russia does that "ruse" then we should help Moldova, especially if the Transdniestrian separatists are as well armed and trained (compared to Moldovan forces) as rumored to be, no question about it.

OK, so, you think that a "conflict with Russia because of Moldova" is worthwhile. I can tell you that I figured that out a long time ago. As I said, I got it. That is the "straw man". It may work for the unitiated. But I had many such "discussions" with you and I am aware when you are using "straw men", "red herrings", "blind alleys", and so on. Note that you still did not answer the question!
Let me spell it out for you: What if Transdnstra/Russia takes its conflict with Romania beyond Moldova? What if Transdnestra/Russia defeats Moldova and its Romanian "support"? What if Transdnestra/ Russia enters Romania? What if Russia does what they did in Georgia and start shelling Romanian positions within Romania? Is that worth it? Simple question.

Please do not tell me that Romania is protected by NATO. NATO is the Gruffalo. And the mouse can use the Gruffalo only for a while.

Radu

Well, Romania is protected by NATO, ofcourse. If NATO fail to help its own members it means is doomed, and the entire world geopolitics will plunge in chaos. Next step will be for Russia to ocupy Poland and Baltic states, Iran and Syria will act much more agresive toward Israel (like bombing the shit out of it), North Koreea will invade South Koreea, and so on. Even EU will fall, and western Europe will enter in another phase, of a lot more uncertain future.
Not to mention (if we lost again Moldova and we are even attacked on our soil without NATO help) a possible arise to power of a more nationalist leader here who will build some nuclear weapons for protection of the country. This example will be soon followed by others as well, since they can't rely on other protection means against bigger or more equiped conventional armies. And not even Russia want this, with its falling population and having China in the back, closing more and more the gap on military level and looking for Siberia

Its all about how NATO present itself and manage to keep a balance in the world and in Europe.

And yes, its obviously normal and worth to help Moldova (everybody answer you to this, dont get why you keep asking?), but no, i dont think Russia will invade Moldova, nor attack us in full force if we help the Moldovians.

*** edited by admin - see forum guidelines ***

This post has been edited by dragos on October 07, 2011 10:36 am

I answered your question so I don't understand why you wave it off, calling it a red herring while asking me more questions. It's kind of impolite.

Like Udar said, your questions are far fetched. But to answer them, yes, it would be worth it. It's like your little brother is bullied in the street and asks for your help. Do you go to help him even if you know you'll risk a blackened eye, or do you ask yourself if it's worth it "contabiliceste"? We're in NATO now, why behave like in 1940 when we were all alone?

Udar,
I never questioned "help for Moldova".
I already pointed out that "help for Moldova" was a "straw man" thrown into discussion by Imperialist. He does that... There is no discussion on this forum without a "straw man" from Imperialist. It is his little game - sometimes it makes for interesting discussion. What is a "Straw man"? Look it up here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

The issue of help for Moldova was never in discussion. In the Wikileaks telegram, "help for Moldova" was not the "outcome of a conflict with Russia" but rather the "cause of the conflict with Russia". In the Wikileaks telegram, everyone took it as understood that Romania will give help to Moldova. In fact, "conflict with Russia" was seen as inevitable because Romania was duty-bound to help Moldova.

This discussion should be about "conflict with Russia" as the title implies. Let us not get bogged into the sideshow of "help for Moldova". So, get over that, we already agreed that Romania is willing to help Moldova. Try to get past it for a second. Imagine this is a game of chess: "help for Moldova" is the first couple of moves (just push the pawn a couple of squares, maybe move a bishop). Stop talking about the first moves and start thinking about how you can move your knights, bishops, king and queen in such a way as to get a check, checkmate or a stalemate. No point in obsessive chats about the first moves. Strategy is about choosing your battles wisely.

What will happen AFTER "help for Moldova"? What if "help for Moldova" fails?What if "help for Moldova" leads to a conflict between Romanian and Russia? What will happen then? It is obvious by this stage that no one wants to discuss the "elephant in the room".

I doubt that NATO will protect Romania in such a case. As I said, NATO is nothing more than a Gruffalo! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gruffalo
And Russia knows that!

Radu

No, you did not answer. You just said that you agree with "help for Moldova".
I do not wave it off. I accept that. Furthermore, let it be on record that I acknowledge your "support for Moldova". So, let this be the end of the discussion about "help for Moldova".

But my question was not whether we should help Moldova or not. My question was whether what will happen AFTER THAT is worth it.
So, please explain what do you think will happen AFTER Romania gives its support to Moldova.
Do you think that Romania can provide Moldova with such mighty arsenal and advice as to defeat Russia? What if they lose? What then?
Do you think that Russia will simply take that lying down? What of they don't like that and lob a couple of rockets into downtown Bucharest? They did it in Tbilisi. They can blame "rogue elements in the Army" or "miscommunication" or simply say "Rockets? What rockets? That was a gas explosion!"
What if NATO says "this is so stupid! I am out of here!". Your example about "helping your bullied brother is kind of silly. What if your brother is bullied by a giant with no morals and you are just a little less puny than your brother? What good? That giant will just squish you like a bug. Yes, you may claim that you did your brotherly duty, but you will still be squished like a bug. A proud squished bug. No point in going to your neighbour Nea Natu who is a war veteran and ask him to give a good trashing to that nasty giant. Most likely Nea Natu will tell you that you kids should stop picking fights with giants with no morals, tap you on your head and hope you learned your lesson.

So, let us talk about "conflict with Russia".

Radu